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Bundesliga | Gameweek 18
Jan 20, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1
Leverkusen logo

RB Leipzig
2 - 3
B. Leverkusen

Simons (7'), Openda (56')
Simons (71'), Schlager (87')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Tella (47'), Tah (63'), Hincapie (90+1')
Tah (12'), Alonso (34'), Stanisic (38'), Wirtz (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: RB Leipzig 0-1 Frankfurt
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: RB Leipzig 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen

An entertaining yet closely-fought contest is set to be in store between Leipzig and Leverkusen, who have both won three, drawn three and lost three of their last nine meetings against one another. Leverkusen have already dropped points in two games against fellow top-four teams this term, and Leipzig are certainly no pushovers on their day, but we believe that Alonso's side will ultimately find a way to claim maximum points once again. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 37.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.67%) and 0-2 (5.75%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
RB LeipzigDrawBayer Leverkusen
37.25% (-0.755 -0.76) 24.42% (-0.074000000000002 -0.07) 38.33% (0.83 0.83)
Both teams to score 59.88% (0.27 0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.07% (0.35 0.35)42.92% (-0.348 -0.35)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.67% (0.349 0.35)65.33% (-0.345 -0.34)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.11% (-0.23099999999999 -0.23)22.89% (0.234 0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.35% (-0.343 -0.34)56.65% (0.345 0.34)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.66% (0.583 0.58)22.34% (-0.582 -0.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.18% (0.864 0.86)55.82% (-0.861 -0.86)
Score Analysis
    RB Leipzig 37.25%
    Bayer Leverkusen 38.33%
    Draw 24.42%
RB LeipzigDrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 8.33% (-0.1 -0.1)
1-0 @ 7.54% (-0.17 -0.17)
2-0 @ 5.56% (-0.165 -0.17)
3-1 @ 4.09% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 2.73% (-0.101 -0.1)
4-1 @ 1.51% (-0.039 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.13% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.01% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 37.25%
1-1 @ 11.3% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-2 @ 6.24% (0.033 0.03)
0-0 @ 5.11% (-0.08 -0.08)
3-3 @ 1.53% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 24.42%
1-2 @ 8.47% (0.102 0.1)
0-1 @ 7.67% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
0-2 @ 5.75% (0.109 0.11)
1-3 @ 4.23% (0.122 0.12)
2-3 @ 3.12% (0.069 0.07)
0-3 @ 2.87% (0.102 0.1)
1-4 @ 1.59% (0.073 0.07)
2-4 @ 1.17% (0.046 0.05)
0-4 @ 1.08% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 38.33%

How you voted: RB Leipzig vs B. Leverkusen

RB Leipzig
26.9%
Draw
17.6%
Bayer Leverkusen
55.6%
108
Head to Head
Aug 19, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
B. Leverkusen
3-2
RB Leipzig
Frimpong (24'), Tah (35'), Wirtz (64')
Okoh Boniface (69')
Olmo (39'), Openda (71')
Seiwald (62'), Lukeba (81')
Apr 23, 2023 4.30pm
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
Apr 17, 2022 6.30pm
Nov 28, 2021 4.30pm
Gameweek 13
RB Leipzig
1-3
B. Leverkusen
Silva (62')
Forsberg (38')
Wirtz (21'), Diaby (34'), Frimpong (64')
Andrich (14'), Hradecky (82'), Frimpong (90+3')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Werder Bremen157442625125
7Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
8Freiburg157352124-324
9Stuttgart156542925423
10Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
11Wolfsburg146353125621
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243


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