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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 37.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.67%) and 0-2 (5.75%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
37.25% ( -0.76) | 24.42% ( -0.07) | 38.33% ( 0.83) |
Both teams to score 59.88% ( 0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.07% ( 0.35) | 42.92% ( -0.35) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.67% ( 0.35) | 65.33% ( -0.34) |
RB Leipzig Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.11% ( -0.23) | 22.89% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.35% ( -0.34) | 56.65% ( 0.34) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.66% ( 0.58) | 22.34% ( -0.58) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.18% ( 0.86) | 55.82% ( -0.86) |
Score Analysis |
RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
2-1 @ 8.33% ( -0.1) 1-0 @ 7.54% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 5.56% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 4.09% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.28% Total : 37.25% | 1-1 @ 11.3% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.42% | 1-2 @ 8.47% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 4.23% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.1) 1-4 @ 1.59% ( 0.07) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.4% Total : 38.33% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 36 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 27 |
5 | Mainz 05Mainz | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 25 |
6 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 25 |
7 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 24 |
8 | Freiburg | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 24 |
9 | Stuttgart | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 22 |
11 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 16 |
14 | St Pauli | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
16 | Heidenheim | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 8 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 3 |
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