Vasco

2 - 1

Gremio

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 51.68%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 24.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.