Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 52.44%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.08% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.46%) and 0-2 (5.72%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
Result | ||
Newcastle Jets | Draw | Adelaide United |
27.08% ( -1.22) | 20.48% ( -0.31) | 52.44% ( 1.54) |
Both teams to score 69.89% ( 0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.09% ( 0.57) | 27.92% ( -0.57) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
51.36% ( 0.71) | 48.64% ( -0.7) |
Newcastle Jets Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.68% ( -0.43) | 21.32% ( 0.43) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.73% ( -0.67) | 54.27% ( 0.67) |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.83% ( 0.62) | 11.17% ( -0.62) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.34% ( 1.35) | 35.66% ( -1.34) |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle Jets | Draw | Adelaide United |
2-1 @ 6.24% ( -0.22) 1-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.18) 3-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.24% ( -0.08) 4-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.52% Total : 27.08% | 1-1 @ 8.07% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 2.57% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.38% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.63% Total : 20.48% | 1-2 @ 8.84% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 6.46% ( 0.18) 0-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 5.22% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 4.99% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 4.18% ( 0.17) 1-4 @ 3.54% ( 0.18) 2-4 @ 2.74% ( 0.11) 0-4 @ 2.29% ( 0.15) 1-5 @ 1.55% ( 0.12) 3-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.04) 2-5 @ 1.2% ( 0.08) 0-5 @ 1% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.3% Total : 52.44% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 28 |
2 | Auckland FC | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 27 |
3 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
4 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 24 |
5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 21 |
6 | Macarthur | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 21 |
7 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 19 |
8 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 18 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 35 | -26 | 8 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 5 |
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