Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montserrat win with a probability of 50.6%. A win for US Virgin Islands had a probability of 25.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montserrat win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest US Virgin Islands win was 0-1 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montserrat would win this match.