With a spot in the Asian Cup quarter-finals at stake, Tajikistan take on the United Arab Emirates on Sunday at Ahmed bin Ali Stadium.
A dramatic come-from-behind 2-1 victory over Lebanon on matchday three enabled the Crowns to claim second place in Group A, while the UAE lost 2-1 to Iran but still edged out Palestine on goal difference, finishing as runners-up in Group C.
Match preview
© Reuters
Facing a sizable crowd supporting the Lebanese and flirting with elimination, Tajikistan fought their way back into their previous match to claim their first-ever victory in this competition.
Their first two goals in the history of the Asian Cup came in the final 10 minutes plus stoppage time, moving them up to four points, the most for any side making their debut in this competition since Australia in 2007 (four).
It is the first time Tajikistan have made it beyond the group stage of any competition since finishing as runners-up at the 2019 Hero Intercontinental Cup.
Petar Segrt's men have won their last seven matches in all competitions when netting multiple times and have not lost in over three years when doing so (3-2 versus the UAE in November 2020).
While they have been behind in consecutive games at this tournament, the Crowns have usually been able to keep their matches close, with five of their previous six competitive fixtures decided by a goal or fewer.
Sunday will be their third meeting with the UAE, drawing them 0-0 last March and losing 3-2 in a 2020 friendly, which was the last time they suffered a defeat after drawing first blood.
© Reuters
They fell a little short in their final group fixture, but the other scores went their way, as the UAE squeaked into second place by a single goal.
While their four points claimed were the fewest for them in the group stage of this tournament since 2011 (one), it is the first time they have ever qualified for the last 16 on three successive occasions.
This weekend will be the third time they ever play a round of 16 Asian Cup fixture, with Al Abyad advancing on both of their previous occasions in 2015 and 2019.
After winning his first six matches in charge, Paulo Bento has seen his side go winless in three of their last four games, with his only two defeats as manager occurring this year.
The UAE have won their last seven matches in all competitions when scoring the first goal of the game and have not lost when doing so since a November 2020 friendly against Bahrain (3-1).
It has been over a year since this side suffered consecutive defeats, losing their first two group matches at the Gulf Cup in January 2023.
Team News
© Reuters
Amadoni Kamolov missed the previous encounter for Tajikistan due to a red card suspension and was replaced by Shervoni Mabatshoev in the midfield.
Captain Parvizdzhon Umarbayev and Ehson Panjshanbe are each just two caps away from 50, Mukhammadzhon Rakhimov can reach that milestone on Sunday and their most capped player, Akhtam Nazarov, is one away from 80.
Umarbayev kickstarted their comeback on matchday three, notching his 10th for the national team with 10 minutes remaining before Nuriddin Khamrokulov scored the winner in stoppage time, just his second with the Cedars.
On matchday three, the UAE were missing Khalifa Al Hammadi due to a red card suspension, with Khalid Al-Hashemi taking his place on defence, while Zayed Sultan, Harib Abdalla, Tahnoon Al-Zaabi and Yahya Al Ghassani were all newcomers to the starting 11.
Caio Canedo made his 40th appearance, replacing Al-Zaabi against Iran, Abdullah Ramadan is five away from the half-century mark and Ali Salmeen needs one more to reach 60.
After missing a penalty in the second half on Tuesday, Al Ghassani scored a consolation goal for the UAE in stoppage time, while Khalid Eisa conceded a goal in all three group fixtures after failing to allow one in their opening two 2026 World Cup qualifiers.
Tajikistan possible starting lineup:
Yatimov; Safarov, Khanonov, Dzhuraboyev, Nazarov; Tursunov, Umarbayev, Shukurov, Panjshanbe; Soirov, Dzhalilov
United Arab Emirates possible starting lineup:
Eisa; Sultan, Idrees, Al-Hashemi, Nasser, Ab. Saleh; Canedo, Rashid, Ramadan, Ali Saleh; Al Ghassani
We say: Tajikistan 1-1 United Arab Emirates (Tajikistan advances on penalties)
Tajikistan are essentially playing with house money and have nothing to lose, which is not the case for the UAE who have unfinished business, falling at the penultimate hurdle over the past two Asian Cups.
Based on recent form and how resilient Tajikistan have been against experienced sides at the Asian Cup, we believe they will keep a cool head when needed and pull off an upset.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
Qatar
Tajikistan
China
Lebanon
Australia
Uzbekistan
Syria
India
Iran
UAE
Palestine
Hong Kong
Iraq
Japan
Indonesia
Vietnam
Bahrain
South Korea
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Thailand
Oman
Kyrgyzstan
