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Stoke logo
Championship | Gameweek 25
Dec 30, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
bet365 Stadium
Derby logo

Stoke
1 - 2
Derby

Ince (78')
Wilmot (16'), Vrancic (61'), Tymon (71')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Plange (16'), Kazim-Richards (85')
Plange (59')

Preview: Stoke City vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Championship clash between Stoke City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Stoke City are scheduled to end a 19-day wait for a game on Thursday evening when they play host to Derby County.

The Potters now sit in eighth position in the Championship standings, albeit with matches in hand, while opponents Derby head into this fixture on the back of a superb victory over West Bromwich Albion last time out.


Match preview

Stoke City's manager Michael O'Neill pictured on September 25, 2021© Reuters

After starting December by collecting four points from fixtures against Queens Park Rangers and Middlesbrough, Michael O'Neill would have been satisfied with the trajectory of his Stoke side.

However, any momentum generated from that double-header has now been lost, and the Potters head into their meeting with Derby effectively starting from scratch.

Somewhere down the line, a near three-week break may benefit the legs, but being out of match practice may not stand Stoke in good stead ahead of winnable home games with Derby and Preston North End.

Before the unexpected interval, Stoke had kept five clean sheets during seven games, conceding just twice, but just six goals were scored during that run.

Stoke possess the third-best defensive record at home this season, although 15 goals in 11 outings at the bet365 Stadium is only the 11th-best.

Derby County manager Wayne Rooney on October 19, 2021© Reuters

Most matters regarding Derby these days revolve around when they will finally get new owners, something which needs to be in place as soon as possible if Wayne Rooney is going to retain his current squad and even add to it in January.

However, for the first time this season, the Rams have posted two wins in succession, backing up a 1-0 victory over Blackpool with a triumph by the same scoreline versus West Brom.

Owing to coronavirus cases, those results came 16 days apart, but that is further testament to the job that Rooney continues to do at Pride Park.

While Derby had to ride their luck against the Baggies, the result was all that mattered, and they are now within 14 points adrift of safety.

Overturning that deficit is still a mammoth task even with half of the campaign remaining, although Rooney will feel that his team are performing to a level where they can continue to upset the odds over the coming weeks and months.

Stoke City Championship form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D

Derby County Championship form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Derby County's Colin Kazim-Richards celebrates with teammates after scoring their first goal on July 18, 2021© Reuters

Despite the extended break from action, Stoke are not expected to welcome back any of their previous absentees.

While coronavirus cases will likely affect his team selection, O'Neill may look to select much of the side which drew with Middlesbrough on December 11.

Rooney has revealed that Phil Jagielka, Graeme Shinnie, Kamil Jozwiak and Tom Lawrence should all return to the squad after coronavirus.

Having spent more time out of isolation, Jagielka and Jozwiak appear most likely to be recalled, with Richard Stearman's and Sam Baldock's places both at risk.

Colin Kazim-Richards may also come back into the starting lineup after scoring the decisive goal versus West Brom.

Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Davies; Wilmot, Batth, Fox; Smith, Clucas, Allen, Vrancic, Tymon; Campbell, Fletcher

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Jagielka, Davies; Ebosele, Thompson, Bird, Forsyth; Knight, Kazim-Richards, Jozwiak


SM words green background

We say: Stoke City 1-1 Derby County

Regardless of the three-day turnaround, Derby should only benefit from taking on a team without match practice. All things considered, however, everything points to this contest ending in a low-scoring draw, a result which would not suit either club.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 47.91%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 24.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.76%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (9.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Stoke vs Derby

Stoke City
57.6%
Draw
26.3%
Derby County
16.2%
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3Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
4Burnley157621861227
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom15672169725
6Watford158162322125
7Middlesbrough157352317624
8Millwall156541813523
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City155732019122
11Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
12Derby CountyDerby155461919019
13Stoke CityStoke155461819-119
14Norwich CityNorwich154652322118
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds155371725-818
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd154561718-117
17Coventry CityCoventry154472021-116
18Plymouth ArgylePlymouth154471526-1116
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