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Serie A
Roma logo
Serie A | Gameweek 31
Apr 6, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Lazio logo

Roma
1 - 0
Lazio

Mancini (42')
De Rossi (22'), Mancini (55'), Celik (68'), Pellegrini (80'), Paredes (81'), Lukaku (90+3'), Lukaku (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Vecino (21'), Pedro (73'), Castellanos (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Derby della Capitale between Serie A rivals Roma and Lazio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Lecce 0-0 Roma
Monday, April 1 at 5pm in Serie A

Lazio

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Juventus 2-0 Lazio
Tuesday, April 2 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

We said: Roma 1-0 Lazio

 Roma have not won a Derby della Capitale since March 2022, but with both momentum and club icon Daniele De Rossi on their side, they can end that drought this weekend. Goal-shy Lazio are still a work in progress under Igor Tudor, who is trying to unpick two years of 'Sarri-ball'. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 57%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 20.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Roma in this match.

Result
RomaDrawLazio
57% (0.16399999999999 0.16) 22.81% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01) 20.19% (-0.153 -0.15)
Both teams to score 52.6% (-0.209 -0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.3% (-0.157 -0.16)46.7% (0.158 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.04% (-0.147 -0.15)68.96% (0.14800000000001 0.15)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.85% (0.0010000000000048 0)16.15%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.41% (0.002999999999993 0)45.59% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Lazio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.73% (-0.249 -0.25)37.27% (0.251 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.95% (-0.246 -0.25)74.05% (0.247 0.25)
Score Analysis
    Roma 56.99%
    Lazio 20.19%
    Draw 22.81%
RomaDrawLazio
1-0 @ 10.97% (0.07 0.07)
2-0 @ 10% (0.063000000000001 0.06)
2-1 @ 9.87% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 6.08% (0.041 0.04)
3-1 @ 6% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-2 @ 2.96% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.77% (0.019 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.74%
4-2 @ 1.35% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.01% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
5-1 @ 1%
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 56.99%
1-1 @ 10.83%
0-0 @ 6.02% (0.04 0.04)
2-2 @ 4.87% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-3 @ 0.97% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 22.81%
0-1 @ 5.94% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-2 @ 5.35% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-2 @ 2.93% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.76% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.6% (-0.022 -0.02)
0-3 @ 0.97% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 1.64%
Total : 20.19%

How you voted: Roma vs Lazio

Roma
74.8%
Draw
17.4%
Lazio
7.7%
155
Head to Head
Jan 10, 2024 5pm
Quarter-Finals
Lazio
1-0
Roma
Zaccagni (51' pen.)
Castellanos (60'), Guendouzi (65'), Pellegrini (90+3'), Pedro (90+5')
Pedro (90+6')

Cristante (57'), Mancini (65')
Azmoun (90+10'), Mancini (90+11')
> Preview
Nov 12, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 12
Lazio
0-0
Roma
Sarri (33'), Immobile (38'), Alberto (67'), Patric (74')
Mancini (18'), N'Dicka (31'), Lukaku (37'), Azmoun (87')
> Preview
Mar 19, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 27
Lazio
1-0
Roma
Zaccagni (65')
> Preview
Nov 6, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 13
Roma
0-1
Lazio
Anderson (29')
> Preview
Mar 20, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 30
Roma
3-0
Lazio
Abraham (1', 22'), Pellegrini (40')
Karsdorp (48'), Mancini (53'), Zalewski (73'), Oliveira (78')

Pedro (43'), Patric (44'), Leiva (61')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli128221991026
2Atalanta BCAtalanta1281331151625
3Fiorentina1274125101525
4Inter Milan1274126141225
5Lazio1281325141125
6Juventus126602171424
7AC Milan115332014618
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma122641618-212
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona124081727-1012
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108
> Serie A Full Table


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