Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 27

Mar 19, 2023 at 5pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
1 - 0
Roma

Zaccagni (65')
Alberto (25'), Romagnoli (59'), Cancellieri (89'), Basic (90+2')
Marusic (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ibanez (8'), Cristante (71'), Mancini (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Rome Derby between Lazio and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AZ 2-1 Lazio
Thursday, March 16 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Real Sociedad 0-0 Roma
Thursday, March 16 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Both coaches have cited concerns about fatigue following their European exploits, but the two teams have had a similar workload in that regard. It may, therefore, be a cautious encounter decided by a single goal, and Lazio's ability to keep the back door shut could tip the balance in their favour. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for Roma had a probability of 27.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lazio in this match.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Roma
45.25% ( 0.02)	27.32% ( 0.09)	27.43% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 47.04% (

-0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.09% (

-0.4)

57.91% (

0.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.39% (

-0.32)

78.62% (

0.32)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.48% (

-0.17)

25.52% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.63% (

-0.23)

60.37% (

0.23)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.16% (

-0.32)

36.84% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.37% (

-0.32)

73.63% (

0.32)

Score Analysis

Lazio 45.25%

Roma 27.43%

Draw 27.31%

Lazio	Draw	Roma
1-0 @ 12.84% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 8.77% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.76% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.99% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.2% Total : 45.25%	1-1 @ 12.82% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.31%	0-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.81% Total : 27.43%