We said: Roma 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg
Mourinho's men will most likely have to make do without Abraham and Dybala, leaving them short of the much-needed firepower up top in a game where goals are required to advance.
That should be music to the ears of the visiting Austrian side, who seldom fail to find the back of the net, a run that should continue in Rome.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 47.06%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 28.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 0-1 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.