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Europa League
Red Bull Salzburg
Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 16, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Roma logo

Salzburg
1 - 0
Roma

Capaldo (88')
Pavlovic (84'), Koita (86'), Gluh (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Ibanez (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Red Bull Salzburg and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

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Last Game: Salzburg 3-0 Karlsruher
Friday, January 20 at 3pm in Club Friendlies 1
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Roma

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Lecce 1-1 Roma
Saturday, February 11 at 5pm in Serie A

We said: Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Roma

 Both runners-up in the Europa League's predecessor - the UEFA Cup - during the 1990s, these clubs boast significant European pedigree and are seemingly well-matched. Yet, Roma's recent form has shown they can grind out results where in the past they would have folded, so the visitors can return to Italy on level terms ahead of the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 45.79%. A win for Roma had a probability of 29.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Red Bull Salzburg would win this match.

Result
Red Bull SalzburgDrawRoma
45.79% (0.214 0.21) 24.28% (-0.044 -0.04) 29.93% (-0.163 -0.16)
Both teams to score 58.05% (0.058 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.68% (0.123 0.12)44.32% (-0.117 -0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.31% (0.119 0.12)66.7% (-0.113 -0.11)
Red Bull Salzburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.5% (0.14 0.14)19.5% (-0.134 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.62% (0.227 0.23)51.38% (-0.221 -0.22)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.12% (-0.046999999999997 -0.05)27.88% (0.053000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.51% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)63.49% (0.069000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Red Bull Salzburg 45.79%
    Roma 29.93%
    Draw 24.28%
Red Bull SalzburgDrawRoma
2-1 @ 9.28% (0.019 0.02)
1-0 @ 8.89% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.27% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.06% (0.032 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.96% (0.031 0.03)
3-2 @ 3.23% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.07% (0.021 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.62% (0.02 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.32% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 45.79%
1-1 @ 11.35% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.93% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 5.44% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.38% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 24.28%
1-2 @ 7.25% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-1 @ 6.95% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.44% (-0.035 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.09% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.52% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 1.89% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.99% (-0.007 -0.01)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 29.93%

How you voted: Salzburg vs Roma

Red Bull Salzburg
36.9%
Draw
19.5%
Roma
43.7%
293
rhs 2.0
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