We said: HJK Helsinki 0-1 Roma
In cold conditions, on an artificial pitch, injury-hit Roma are not likely to hit top form following a few unconvincing performances.
However, they have enough experience and guile within their squad - and on the touchline - to ensure a repeat of their humbling away to Nordic opposition last year is avoided; a single-goal win could be on the cards.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 50.53%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 25.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.37%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 2-1 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Roma in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Roma.