Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 53.03%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 18.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.88%) and 1-2 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.69%), while for a Lugo win it was 1-0 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.