Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queen of the South win with a probability of 45.29%. A win for East Kilbride had a probability of 31.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queen of the South win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.42%) and 0-2 (6.45%). The likeliest East Kilbride win was 2-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Queen of the South would win this match.