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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Madagascar national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 14, 2024 at 4pm UK
Loftus Versfeld Stadium
Tunisia national football team

Madagascar
2 - 3
Tunisia

Memmich (20' og.), Amada (45+3')
Fontaine (45'), Amada (78')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Rafia (6'), Ltaief (39'), Abdi (90+3')
Kechrida (74')
Kechrida (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Madagascar and Tunisia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Madagascar

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Gambia 1-0 Madagascar
Monday, October 14 at 3pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Tunisia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Comoros 1-1 Tunisia
Tuesday, October 15 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Madagascar 0-1 Tunisia

 After two underwhelming performances against Comoros last month, Tunisia have brought in a new manager in Yaacoubi, who has wasted no time in shaking up the squad, and we feel that this new-look side should be able to get the job done against an opponent that are still winless in the competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 56.86%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 17.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.64%) and 1-2 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (7.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.

Result
MadagascarDrawTunisia
17.01% (-0.407 -0.41) 26.13% (-0.469 -0.47) 56.86% (0.872 0.87)
Both teams to score 38.57% (0.411 0.41)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.37% (0.932 0.93)62.63% (-0.936 -0.94)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.8% (0.674 0.67)82.2% (-0.679 -0.68)
Madagascar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.64% (0.036999999999999 0.04)50.35% (-0.041000000000004 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.1% (0.028 0.03)84.9% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Tunisia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.69% (0.767 0.77)22.3% (-0.77 -0.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.23% (1.141 1.14)55.77% (-1.144 -1.14)
Score Analysis
    Madagascar 17.01%
    Tunisia 56.85%
    Draw 26.13%
MadagascarDrawTunisia
1-0 @ 7.71% (-0.263 -0.26)
2-1 @ 3.97% (-0.037999999999999 -0.04)
2-0 @ 2.64% (-0.088 -0.09)
3-1 @ 0.91% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 17.01%
1-1 @ 11.56% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-0 @ 11.23% (-0.39 -0.39)
2-2 @ 2.98% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 26.13%
0-1 @ 16.85% (-0.2 -0.2)
0-2 @ 12.64% (0.14 0.14)
1-2 @ 8.67% (0.104 0.1)
0-3 @ 6.32% (0.21 0.21)
1-3 @ 4.34% (0.149 0.15)
0-4 @ 2.37% (0.131 0.13)
1-4 @ 1.63% (0.091 0.09)
2-3 @ 1.49% (0.053 0.05)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 56.85%

How you voted: Madagascar vs Tunisia

Madagascar
22.2%
Draw
27.8%
Tunisia
50.0%
36
Head to Head
Sep 5, 2024 8pm
Group Stage
Tunisia
1-0
Madagascar
Sassi (90+8')
Ben Ouannes (76')

Amada (36'), Randrianantenaina (49'), Carolus Andriamatsinoro (82'), Patrick Laiton (90+2')
> Preview
Jul 11, 2019 8pm
Quarter-Finals
Madagascar
0-3
Tunisia

Anicet (86')
Sassi (52'), Msakni (60'), Sliti (93')
> Match Report
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