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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Gambia national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 8, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi
Tunisia national football team

Gambia
1 - 2
Tunisia

Sowe (14')
Adams (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Abdi (11'), Ali Ben Romdhane (76')
Sassi (59'), Jouini (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Gambia and Tunisia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gambia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Comoros 1-1 Gambia
Wednesday, September 4 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Tunisia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Tunisia 1-0 Madagascar
Thursday, September 5 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Gambia 1-1 Tunisia

 While Tunisia are still ranked in the top 10 sides in the CAF region, their performances over the last year have been well below expectations. Gambia, on the other hand, have been steadily improving over the same period, and if they can find a way to tighten up defensively, we could see them moving up the rankings in the coming months. The Carthage Eagles are considered the favourites here, but we feel the Scorpions will be able to earn a share of the spoils in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 39.45%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.

Result
GambiaDrawTunisia
33.31% (0.053999999999995 0.05) 27.24% (-0.032 -0.03) 39.45% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Both teams to score 49.82% (0.116 0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.41% (0.141 0.14)55.59% (-0.138 -0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.24% (0.116 0.12)76.76% (-0.11199999999999 -0.11)
Gambia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.73% (0.107 0.11)31.27% (-0.105 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.38% (0.125 0.13)67.62% (-0.122 -0.12)
Tunisia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.49% (0.057999999999993 0.06)27.52% (-0.055 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.98% (0.073999999999998 0.07)63.02% (-0.071000000000005 -0.07)
Score Analysis
    Gambia 33.31%
    Tunisia 39.45%
    Draw 27.23%
GambiaDrawTunisia
1-0 @ 10% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 7.5% (0.015 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.81% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 2.91% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.25% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.88% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 33.31%
1-1 @ 12.9% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.6% (-0.046000000000001 -0.05)
2-2 @ 4.84% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 27.23%
0-1 @ 11.1% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
1-2 @ 8.33% (0.004999999999999 0)
0-2 @ 7.16% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.58% (0.008 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.08% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 2.08% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.16% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 39.45%

How you voted: Gambia vs Tunisia

Gambia
33.3%
Draw
25.0%
Tunisia
41.7%
36
Head to Head
Jan 20, 2022 7pm
Group Stage
Gambia
1-0
Tunisia
Jallow (90+3')
Adams (48'), Gomez (89')

Mathlouthi (45+2'), Mejbri (90+2'), Drager (90+2')
Ben Mustapha (45+3')
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