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Guinea national football team
Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage
Jan 19, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade de Yamoussoukro
Gambia national football team

Guinea
1 - 0
Gambia

Camara (69')
Diakite (19'), Jeanvier (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Barrow (10'), Sowe (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Guinea and Gambia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations
Last Game: Cameroon 1-1 Guinea
Monday, January 15 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations
Last Game: Senegal 3-0 Gambia
Monday, January 15 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations

We said: Guinea 2-0 Gambia

Guinea were unlucky not to have got all three points against Cameroon in their opening match and will be eager to make amends for it in this one against a Gambia side that looked very poor against Senegal on Monday evening. We feel the National Elephants will put on another impressive display here and fancy them to secure their first win of the competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 52.66%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Gambia had a probability of 18.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.12%) and 2-1 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.16%), while for a Gambia win it was 0-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 18.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Guinea in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Guinea.

Result
GuineaDrawGambia
52.66% (0.534 0.53) 28.92% (-0.242 -0.24) 18.41% (-0.294 -0.29)
Both teams to score 34.73% (0.111 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
31.09% (0.364 0.36)68.91% (-0.366 -0.37)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
13.47% (0.234 0.23)86.53% (-0.23700000000001 -0.24)
Guinea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.97% (0.43600000000001 0.44)27.03% (-0.438 -0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.6% (0.567 0.57)62.4% (-0.569 -0.57)
Gambia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
47.59% (-0.134 -0.13)52.41% (0.132 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
13.73% (-0.087000000000002 -0.09)86.27% (0.087000000000003 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Guinea 52.66%
    Gambia 18.41%
    Draw 28.91%
GuineaDrawGambia
1-0 @ 18.53% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 12.12% (0.14 0.14)
2-1 @ 7.83% (0.056999999999999 0.06)
3-0 @ 5.29% (0.123 0.12)
3-1 @ 3.42% (0.066 0.07)
4-0 @ 1.73% (0.061 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.12% (0.035 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.1% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 1.53%
Total : 52.66%
0-0 @ 14.16% (-0.2 -0.2)
1-1 @ 11.97% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
2-2 @ 2.53% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 28.91%
0-1 @ 9.15% (-0.161 -0.16)
1-2 @ 3.87% (-0.035 -0.04)
0-2 @ 2.96% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 18.41%

How you voted: Guinea vs Gambia

Guinea
82.5%
Draw
15.0%
Gambia
2.5%
40
Head to Head
Jan 24, 2022 4pm
Round of 16
Guinea
0-1
Gambia

Conte (81')
Conte (90+3')
Barrow (71')
Bobb (27'), Njie (74')
Njie (87')
Oct 12, 2020
11pm
rhs 2.0
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