Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Jan 20, 2022 at 7pm UK

Independence Stadium

Gambia
1 - 0
Tunisia

Jallow (90+3')
Adams (48'), Gomez (89')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mathlouthi (45+2'), Mejbri (90+2'), Drager (90+2')
Ben Mustapha (45+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Gambia and Tunisia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Given the stakes of the game, we expect a thrilling contest with both sides going all out for all three points. On the back of their dominant performance last time out, the Tunisians will head into the game in sky-high confidence and we are tipping them to come away with the win and confirm their place in the knockout stages. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gambia win with a probability of 42.1%. A win for Tunisia had a probability of 30.04% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Tunisia win was 0-1 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gambia in this match.

Result
Gambia	Draw	Tunisia
42.1%	27.85%	30.04%

Both teams to score 46.97%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.31%

58.69%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.77%

79.23%

Gambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.48%

27.51%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.98%

63.02%

Tunisia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.8%

35.2%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.04%

71.95%

Score Analysis

Gambia 42.1%

Tunisia 30.04%

Draw 27.85%

Gambia	Draw	Tunisia
1-0 @ 12.49% 2-1 @ 8.42% 2-0 @ 8.06% 3-1 @ 3.62% 3-0 @ 3.47% 3-2 @ 1.89% 4-1 @ 1.17% 4-0 @ 1.12% Other @ 1.85% Total : 42.1%	1-1 @ 13.05% 0-0 @ 9.69% 2-2 @ 4.4% Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.85%	0-1 @ 10.11% 1-2 @ 6.81% 0-2 @ 5.28% 1-3 @ 2.37% 0-3 @ 1.84% 2-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 2.1% Total : 30.04%