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Aberdeen logo
Scottish Cup | Quarter-Finals
Mar 9, 2024 at 12.15pm UK
Pittodrie Stadium
Kilmarnock logo

Aberdeen
3 - 1
Kilmarnock

McGrath (11'), Shinnie (33'), Findlay (66' og.)
MacKenzie (46'), McGrath (70'), Shinnie (90')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Armstrong (41')
Armstrong (62'), Wright (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Scottish Cup clash between Aberdeen and Kilmarnock, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: St Mirren 2-1 Aberdeen
Saturday, March 2 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Dundee 2-2 Kilmarnock
Saturday, March 2 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership

We said: Aberdeen 0-2 Kilmarnock

Aberdeen and Kilmarnock's contrasting form leading into this game makes it hard to see any outcome other than Kilmarnock extending Aberdeen's poor form with a victory in this one. Warnock's side have struggled for goals in their past few games, and we expect Kilmarnock to keep a clean sheet in this one as they progress through to the semi-final of the Scottish Cup. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aberdeen win with a probability of 49.56%. A win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 26.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aberdeen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Kilmarnock win was 0-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aberdeen would win this match.

Result
AberdeenDrawKilmarnock
49.56% (0.012 0.01) 24.3% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 26.14% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Both teams to score 55.12% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.12% (0.027999999999999 0.03)46.88% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.87% (0.024000000000001 0.02)69.14% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Aberdeen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.04% (0.016000000000005 0.02)18.97% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.5% (0.023000000000003 0.02)50.5% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Kilmarnock Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.02% (0.016999999999996 0.02)31.98% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.57% (0.016000000000002 0.02)68.44% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Aberdeen 49.56%
    Kilmarnock 26.14%
    Draw 24.3%
AberdeenDrawKilmarnock
1-0 @ 10.08%
2-1 @ 9.56% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 8.38% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
3-1 @ 5.3% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 4.65% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-2 @ 3.02% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 2.2% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 1.93% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.26% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.19%
Total : 49.56%
1-1 @ 11.49%
0-0 @ 6.07% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-2 @ 5.45% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-3 @ 1.15% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.3%
0-1 @ 6.92% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 6.55% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 3.94% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 2.49% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.07% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.5%
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 26.14%

How you voted: Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock

Aberdeen
38.9%
Draw
11.1%
Kilmarnock
50.0%
18
Head to Head
Feb 24, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 27
Kilmarnock
2-0
Aberdeen
Ndaba (45+5'), Kennedy (58')
Armstrong (77')

Warnock (0')
Dec 6, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Aberdeen
0-1
Kilmarnock

Shinnie (45'), Hayes (65'), Gartenmann (82')
Watson (90+2')
McKenzie (86')
Oct 29, 2023 12pm
Gameweek 10
Kilmarnock
2-0
Aberdeen
Vassell (45+5'), Watkins (64')
Lyons (85')

Gartenmann (45+1'), Shinnie (45+3'), Sokler (89')
Apr 8, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 31
Aberdeen
2-0
Kilmarnock
Lopes (1', 59')
Dec 28, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
Kilmarnock
2-1
Aberdeen
Robinson (31'), Wright (42')
Kennedy (90+1')
rhs 2.0
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