Primeira Liga | Gameweek 25
Mar 10, 2024 at 6pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca0 - 3Sporting Lisbon
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Chaves 1-5 Arouca
Friday, March 1 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Friday, March 1 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Atalanta
Wednesday, March 6 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Wednesday, March 6 at 5.45pm in Europa League
We said: Arouca 1-3 Sporting Lisbon
After a shaky start to the year, Arouca have upped the ante in recent weeks and will head into Sunday's clash brimming with confidence. However, Sporting Lisbon boast the firepower needed to get the job done and we are tipping them to extend their dominance in this fixture. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 71.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 11.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.73%) and 1-2 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.11%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
11.56% ( 0.17) | 17.21% ( 0.26) | 71.23% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 51.18% ( -0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.7% ( -0.81) | 38.3% ( 0.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.42% ( -0.86) | 60.58% ( 0.86) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.57% ( -0.25) | 43.43% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 20.35% ( -0.21) | 79.65% ( 0.21) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.47% ( -0.31) | 9.52% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 68.08% ( -0.73) | 31.92% ( 0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
Arouca 11.56%
Sporting Lisbon 71.22%
Draw 17.21%
| Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 1.25% Total : 11.56% | 1-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.98% Total : 17.21% | 0-2 @ 11.43% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.24)1-2 @ 9.54% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 8.96% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 7.47% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 5.27% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 4.39% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 2.48% ( -0.08)1-5 @ 2.07% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.06)0-6 @ 0.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.97% Total : 71.22% |
How you voted: Arouca vs Sporting Lisbon
Arouca
16.2%Draw
5.4%Sporting Lisbon
78.4%37
Head to Head
Apr 16, 2023 8.30pm
Jan 24, 2023 7.45pm
Oct 29, 2022 8.30pm
Form Guide
