Primeira Liga | Gameweek 24
Mar 1, 2024 at 8.15pm UK
Estadio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira
Chaves1 - 5Arouca
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 1-1 Chaves
Saturday, February 24 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Saturday, February 24 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 3-2 Famalicao
Friday, February 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Friday, February 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
We said: Chaves 1-2 Arouca
Chaves have shown important signs of improvement in recent weeks and will be desperate to move within touching distance of safety with a home win on Friday, but they meet an Arouca side who are full of momentum and playing at their best, and we see the visitors being too strong and making it six wins from a seven-match span. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Arouca |
31.66% ( -0.02) | 26.22% ( -0.01) | 42.12% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.51% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.06% ( 0.03) | 51.94% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.32% ( 0.03) | 73.68% ( -0.03) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.47% | 30.53% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.25% ( 0) | 66.75% ( -0) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.58% ( 0.03) | 24.42% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.15% ( 0.04) | 58.84% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
Chaves 31.66%
Arouca 42.12%
Draw 26.22%
| Chaves | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 8.85% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.4% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.93% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.08% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0)Other @ 3.11% Total : 31.66% | 1-1 @ 12.47% 0-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.22% | 0-1 @ 10.51% 1-2 @ 8.79% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.41% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.13% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.46% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0)Other @ 2.66% Total : 42.12% |
How you voted: Chaves vs Arouca
Chaves
20.7%Draw
20.7%Arouca
58.6%29
