Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton Under-21s win with a probability of 79.08%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 8.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton Under-21s win was 1-3 with a probability of 8.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (8.18%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.03%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 2-1 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Southampton Under-21s in this match.

Result
Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Southampton Under-21s
8.64% ( -0.57)	12.28% ( -0.42)	79.08% ( 0.99)

Both teams to score 60.6% (

-0.75)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

78.1% (

0.24)

21.9% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

59.24% (

0.33)

40.75% (

-0.32)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.37% (

-0.91)

36.63% (

0.91)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.58% (

-0.92)

73.42% (

0.93)

Southampton Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

95.63% (

0.19)

4.37% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

81.95% (

0.59)

18.04% (

-0.59)

Score Analysis

Derby County Under-21s 8.64%

Southampton Under-21s 79.08%

Draw 12.28%

Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Southampton Under-21s
2-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.19% Total : 8.64%	1-1 @ 5.03% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 3.96% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 1.6% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.31% Total : 12.28%	1-3 @ 8.22% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 8.18% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 7.88% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 7.84% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 6.43% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 6.41% ( 0.23) 0-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.11) 1-5 @ 4.03% ( 0.1) 0-5 @ 4.01% ( 0.2) 2-4 @ 3.23% ( -0.04) 1-6 @ 2.1% ( 0.08) 0-6 @ 2.09% ( 0.13) 2-5 @ 2.02% ( 0) 3-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.04) 2-6 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) 1-7 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) 0-7 @ 0.94% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.48% Total : 79.08%