Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton Under-21s win with a probability of 79.08%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 8.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton Under-21s win was 1-3 with a probability of 8.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (8.18%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.03%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 2-1 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Southampton Under-21s in this match.