In a rematch from the 2023 Gold Cup final, Mexico and Panama will square off in the second semi-final at the CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
In the previous round, El Tri erased a 2-0 deficit, winning the second leg of that tie with Honduras 2-0 before claiming a 4-2 triumph on penalties, while the Panamanians had no problems getting past Costa Rica, winning that quarter-final, 6-1 on aggregate.
Match preview
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The Panamanians have looked like a team on a mission since a heartbreaking 1-0 defeat versus Mexico in the 2023 Gold Cup final.
Thomas Christiansen's men are undefeated since that loss, winning six of their previous seven matches in all competitions.
Apart from a 1-1 draw with Guatemala on matchday two of this competition, the Panamanians have looked virtually unstoppable in the group stage, netting multiple goals in their other four group fixtures.
Los Canaleros have outscored their last three opponents at this tournament by a margin of 9-1 and have never been behind for a single minute in any of those encounters.
Thursday will be their second successive trip to the Nations League semi-finals, with this team falling at the penultimate hurdle last year against Canada (2-0).
It has been nearly a decade since they last defeated Mexico in July of the 2013 Gold Cup (2-1), with Los Canaleros losing seven of their last eight meetings against them and failing to score on six of those occasions.
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A Mexican side that looked dead and buried after the opening leg of their quarter-final tie came to life at Estadio Azteca in the latter stages of each half, forcing extra time with a goal in the 11th minute of second-half stoppage time, before eventually pulling through.
As a result, they are back in the final four of this tournament for a third successive time, with a chance to make their first trip to the final since the inaugural Nations League in 2019-20.
Jaime Lozano seems to have restored the Mexicans' status as a footballing power in CONCACAF, guiding them to a record 12th Gold Cup title last year and winning six of his seven matches against this region since becoming the new manager in 2023.
El Tri are coming off a 3-2 defeat versus Colombia in December 2023, the second time in their last three competitive fixtures that they failed to triumph when leading in the final 45 minutes.
That was their first defeat on American soil since matchday three of the 2023 Gold Cup group stage versus Qatar (1-0), with Mexico earning a result in seven successive competitive games in the United States following that match and before their defeat to the Colombians.
Lozano has never lost consecutive encounters since taking charge of this team, and he has not lost to a Central American opponent on US soil, winning all three games against that region by a combined score of 7-0.
Team News
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There was one new face in the Panamanian starting 11 from their first to second leg Nations League tie versus Costa Rica, with Cristian Martinez replacing Anibal Godoy in leg two.
Christiansen went with a relatively experienced squad for this encounter, with Kahiser Lenis boasting the fewest caps, coming on as a substitute for Eduardo Guerrero for his first and only appearance with Panama thus far in their opening match at this tournament versus Martinique (3-0 victory), while the top player at the 2023 Gold Cup, Adalberto Carrasquilla, is one appearance away from 50, as is goalkeeper Luis Mejia.
Jose Fajardo leads the Panamanians with three strikes in the Nations League this season, netting in both of their quarter-final fixtures, as he, Jose Luis Rodriguez and Yoel Barcenas all scored in a 3-1 victory against the Costa Ricans in the second leg of that tie.
Julio Gonzalez is the only Mexican chosen for this contest without an appearance for the senior side, Jesus Orozco collected his first cap in their friendly versus Colombia, while Julian Quinones picked up his first two caps in the quarter-finals against Honduras.
Jesus Gallardo is just four caps shy of 100 with the national team, Guillermo Ochoa, who picked up a knock in their opening leg against Honduras, is back in the fold, two caps away from 150, while Carlos Rodriguez is two shy of 50 and Edson Alvarez can hit 75 on Thursday.
Alvarez kept their Nations League hopes alive with a goal deep into stoppage time versus the Hondurans in leg two of that tie, with Luis Chavez netting the other goal, while reserve keeper Luis Malagon stopped Bryan Rochez from the penalty spot and Andy Najar missed the net with his kick, enabling El Tri to advance.
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mejia; Escobar, Cordoba, Andrade; Quintero, Godoy, Carrasquilla, Davis; Fajardo, Waterman, Diaz
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; J. Sanchez, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Alvarez, Chavez; Pineda, E. Sanchez, Lozano; Gimenez
We say: Panama 1-1 Mexico (Panama advances on penalties)
Just like in the 2023 final, we expect this to be a close game between two sides with plenty of experience in these sorts of games.
Although it has been a while since Los Canaleros have got the better of El Tri, Panama have been a lot more consistent than their Thursday opponents, and it seems like they have learned a lot from that Gold Cup loss, which should serve them well in this contest.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
