Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 15

Nov 13, 2022 at 2pm UK

Stade Francis-Le Blé

Brest
2 - 1
Troyes

Del Castillo (55' pen.), Mounie (77' pen.)
Herelle (80'), Chardonnet (86'), Bizot (89')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Chardonnet (60' og.)
Kouame (34'), Lopes (36')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Troyes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions

Last Game: Nice 1-0 Brest
Sunday, November 6 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Troyes

All competitions

Last Game: Troyes 1-1 Auxerre
Friday, November 4 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Neither side are particularly enjoying their football at the moment, and may just hope to avoid defeat before the lengthy World Cup break in a fixture which historically has been very tight. Troyes' last seven games have seen both teams score though, and Brest have been leaky in defence too, so goals should be a near certainty. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.06%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Brest in this match.

Result
Brest	Draw	Troyes
43.85% ( 0.06)	24.01% ( -0.01)	32.14% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 60.18% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.97% (

0.02)

42.03% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.57% (

0.02)

64.43% (

-0.02)

Brest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.6% (

0.03)

19.39% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.79% (

0.06)

51.2% (

-0.06)

Troyes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.66% (

-0.03)

25.34% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.87% (

-0.03)

60.12% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Brest 43.85%

Troyes 32.14%

Draw 24%

Brest	Draw	Troyes
2-1 @ 9.08% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.06% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.61% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.96% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.41% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.04% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.4% ( 0) Other @ 3.21% Total : 43.85%	1-1 @ 11.06% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.23% 0-0 @ 4.91% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 0.24% Total : 24%	1-2 @ 7.6% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.48% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.19% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 2.56% Total : 32.14%