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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 46.84%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 25.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.26%) and 2-1 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Grimsby Town win it was 0-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barrow would win this match.
Result | ||
Barrow | Draw | Grimsby Town |
46.84% ( 0.03) | 27.28% ( 0.01) | 25.87% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 46.03% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.35% ( -0.07) | 58.65% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.8% ( -0.05) | 79.2% ( 0.06) |
Barrow Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.93% ( -0.01) | 25.07% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.25% ( -0.02) | 59.75% ( 0.02) |
Grimsby Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.43% ( -0.08) | 38.57% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.68% ( -0.07) | 75.32% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Barrow | Draw | Grimsby Town |
1-0 @ 13.37% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.82% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.07% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.94% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.41% ( -0) Other @ 2.24% Total : 46.83% | 1-1 @ 12.74% 0-0 @ 9.67% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.28% | 0-1 @ 9.21% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.07% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.55% Total : 25.87% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
> League Two Full Table |