Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Avispa Fukuoka win with a probability of 38.06%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 32.84% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Avispa Fukuoka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (11.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Avispa Fukuoka would win this match.