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Lebanon national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Nov 11, 2021 at 12pm UK
 
Iran national football team

Lebanon
1 - 2
Iran

Saad (37')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Azmoun (90+2'), Nourollahi (90+5')
Ghoddos (49'), Jahanbakhsh (51'), Mohammadi (85')

Preview: Lebanon vs. Iran - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Lebanon and Iran, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Iran shall be attempting to maintain their undefeated start to their World Cup 2022 qualifying campaign on Thursday when they travel to the Saida International Stadium to face Lebanon.

The hosts trail their opponents by five points already and need to cut the gap, as they look to follow on from their first victory in the group during their most recent outing.


Match preview

South Korea's Song Min-kyu in action with Lebanon's Soony Saad on June 13, 2021© Reuters

Lebanon had a difficult start to their World Cup 2022 qualification process as they failed to win in their opening three fixtures of Group A.

Ivan Hasek's team were not even able to register a goal in any of those games, which is where their difficulties came from, yet they still picked up two points.

Defensively, the squad proved themselves to be resilient as they secured two goalless draws in order to begin climbing the table, although they did fall short against South Korea.

However, in their most recent outing, the match proved to be far more open as they battled Syria in a five-goal thriller which led to Lebanon's first win in the group.

The team had to battle from behind with a brace from Mohamad Jalal Kdouh and a penalty that was scored by full-back Hassan Ali Saad, which allowed them to win the game 3-2.

Iran's Alireza Jahanbakhsh in action during his side's international friendly with Turkey in May 2018© Reuters

Iran have been dominant in Group A so far, being one of only two teams to have not lost in the opening four fixtures, which has allowed them to climb to the top spot at the moment.

They currently sit two points clear of South Korea, which is a gap they shall no doubt like to extend if possible, and continuing their impressive defensive displays could allow that.

Dragan Skocic's team have only conceded once so far, which came in their most recent outing when Son Heung-min found the back of the net, but that was eventually levelled when Alireza Jahanbakhsh scored, which led to a 1-1 draw.

However, in the previous three matches, Iran were able to secure nine points with victories against Syria, Iraq and United Arab Emirates, scoring five times in the process.

Jahanbakhsh has proven himself to be a crucial part of everything that the team does, with three goals to his name already, making him one of the major threats heading into this game.

Lebanon World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

Lebanon form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

Iran World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W

Iran form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W



Team News

Iran celebrate during an international friendly with Turkey in May 2018© Reuters

Kdouh is expected to start in attack alongside Bassel Jradi for Lebanon, as they continue to search for more goals to help the team.

The preferred 4-4-2 formation is likely going to continue in this particular game as well, providing enough structure defensively and offensively to try and combat what qualities Iran have.

Skocic surprised people when he opted to not pick Mehdi Taremi as part of his squad for this international break and while it is believed he will be back in the next camp, it will provide opportunities for others this time around.

Sardar Azmoun is sure to start up front, and of course, the main attacking threat will be coming from Jahanbakhsh, who is Iran's leading goalscorer in the tournament so far.

However, the team is without Morteza Pouraliganji, Ali Karimi and Aref Gholami, all due to injuries, which have forced some changes with this squad.

Lebanon possible starting lineup:
M. Matar; Saad, Oumari, Melki, Assi; Maatouk, N. Matar, Dhaini, Haidar; Kdouh, Jradi

Iran possible starting lineup:
Beiranvand; Moharrami, Kanaanizadegan, Khalilzadeh, Amiri; Gholizadeh, Nourollahi, Afagh, Jahanbakhsh; Azmoun, Ghayedi


SM words green background

We say: Lebanon 0-2 Iran

This game brings a team that have struggled for goals against an outfit that have only conceded once in the group stage to this point, which is why Iran are the clear favourites.

Their strong defensive performances have worked wonders so far, and with real attacking threats available elsewhere on the pitch, the team should have enough quality to see them through this fixture and remain in the top spot.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 59.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Lebanon had a probability of 17.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.28%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a Lebanon win it was 1-0 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Lebanon vs Iran

Lebanon
15.3%
Draw
8.3%
Iran
76.4%
72
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Iran striker Ali Daei is held aloft by supporters on June 08, 2005.
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