Friendlies 1

Oct 17, 2023 at 5pm UK

Air Albania Stadium

Albania
2 - 0
Bulgaria

Laci (41'), Muci (81')
Asani (51'), Mitaj (73')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Antov (44'), Petkov (51'), Gruev (74')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's friendly clash between Albania and Bulgaria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Albania

All competitions

Last Game: Albania 3-0 Czech Republic
Thursday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Albania	6	8	13
2	Czech Republic	6	3	11
3	Poland	7	0	10
4	Moldova	6	0	9
5	Faroe Islands	7	-11	1

Bulgaria

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Bulgaria 0-2 Lithuania
Saturday, October 14 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	5	7	13
2	Serbia	6	4	10
3	Montenegro	5	0	8
4	Lithuania	6	-4	5
5	Bulgaria	6	-7	2

The home side are likely to make some changes for this contest in a bid to strengthen their depth and experience. Nevertheless, given the trajectories of the two nations, we still believe that Albania will come through with a hard-fought win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albania win with a probability of 49.09%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 23.55%.

The most likely scoreline for an Albania win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Albania would win this match.

Result
Albania	Draw	Bulgaria
49.09% ( -0.26)	27.36% ( -0.09)	23.55% ( 0.35)

Both teams to score 43.83% (

0.57)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.57% (

0.55)

60.43% (

-0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.44% (

0.41)

80.56% (

-0.41)

Albania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.21% (

0.13)

24.79% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.64% (

0.17)

59.36% (

-0.17)

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.28% (

0.66)

41.72% (

-0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.81% (

0.57)

78.19% (

-0.57)

Score Analysis

Albania 49.08%

Bulgaria 23.55%

Draw 27.36%

Albania	Draw	Bulgaria
1-0 @ 14.42% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.79% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.21% Total : 49.08%	1-1 @ 12.61% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.34% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.56% Total : 27.36%	0-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.17% Total : 23.55%