Bottom-placed side Greuther Furth welcome Mainz 05 to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer on Saturday afternoon as part of this weekend's Bundesliga action.
The hosts remain rock bottom by a large margin but are now unbeaten in three games, whilst the visitors' sit in an unexpectedly high position but were knocked out of the cup this week.
Match preview
© Reuters
Whilst Furth are now undefeated since mid-December, the three games in which they avoided defeat have only been draws.
Two 0-0's at home to Augsburg and Stuttgart either side of the winter break were followed by a 2-2 draw away at fellow strugglers Arminia Bielefeld on Sunday.
After the hosts had taken the lead in just the eighth minute, goals from Jamie Leweling and Havard Nielsen turned the match around, only for Gonzalo Castro's late equaliser to level things up again.
If the Cloverleaves are to stand any chance of reducing their 11-point gap to Stuttgart and 12-point gap to the safety of 15th place, they will have to start winning games.
Having just played the two sides nearest to them in the table, things will only get more difficult from here.
© Reuters
Mainz should prove to be a tougher opponent than those the hosts have faced recently, and are enjoying a fantastic season by their standards in the comfort of midtable.
10th in the standings at this stage is an outstanding achievement for a side usually fighting it out at the wrong end of the table.
Just 12 months ago Die Nullfunfer appeared destined for relegation, but following a record-breaking escape under Bo Svensson, they have maintained that momentum and are just three points shy of the European places.
The Danish boss will have been disappointed to see his side exit the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday, though, giving away a one-goal lead to ultimately lose 3-1 to a VfL Bochum side they had beaten in the league just three days earlier.
The silver lining is that perhaps Mainz now avoid the potential distraction of a cup run and can focus on an unlikely push towards Europe.
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Furth's Nielsen scored within 30 seconds of taking to the field against Arminia and will believe he did enough to earn a start this weekend.
Coach Stefan Leitl also has a choice to make at left-back between Jetro Willems and Gian-Luca Itter, who was taken off whilst on a yellow card last time out and could start on the bench here.
Jeremiah St Juste - who is officially the fastest player in Bundesliga history after being clocked at 22.76 mph - was rested for the cup game and should return to the heart of the defence in Bavaria.
Lee Jae-sung and Jonathan Burkardt were also given a break during the week but will likely reclaim their positions in the starting XI, though Kevin Stoger will compete with the former for his spot.
Greuther Furth possible starting lineup:
Burchert; Meyerhofer, Griesbeck, Viergever, Willems; Seguin, Christiansen, Tillman; Nielsen; Leweling, Hrgota
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Widmer, Barreiro, Stach, Lee, Martin; Onisiwo, Burkardt
We say: Greuther Furth 0-1 Mainz 05
Mainz should put their cup woes behind them and pick up where they left off in their stunning league campaign here. The home side have stopped the rot in the last few weeks but continue to struggle in front of goal - having netted just 15 times this season - and we expect them to suffer a narrow defeat.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Greuther Furth win was 1-0 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
