Gremio are running out of time to turn their domestic campaign around and will be desperate to try and close the gap between themselves and relegation when they host Sao Paulo on Thursday at Arena do Gremio in Porto Alegre.
As of Tuesday, Immortal Tricolor are four points back of Bahia in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table, while Sao Paulo moved into a Copa Sudamericana position on Saturday, defeating Sport Recife 2-0.
Match preview
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It has been 16 years since this decorated Brazilian club from years past have dropped into Serie B, but remaining in the top flight for another year will be a tall order for Gremio.
Losing 3-1 to Bahia last Friday was not technically a killer blow, but it has left Vagner Mancini and his side with a huge challenge upcoming to try to maintain their place in Serie A, with only three matches still to play.
Two of their final three games are at home, where they are unbeaten in their last three games, so at this stage, they need to deal with their predicament on a game by game basis and not look too far ahead, given that they will need at least four points to have any hope of staying in the top-flight next year.
Defensively, this team have been poor throughout the campaign, conceding 47 goals, and they have a tough road ahead, facing Corinthians and Atletico Mineiro to wrap up the season.
Last Friday, they were far too complacent and seemed overwhelmed by what was at stake when facing Bahia, conceding twice before the match was 20 minutes old, and they will need to show a lot more composure against a Sao Paulo side who have demonstrated significant improvement in recent games.
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It looks like the relegation crisis at Sao Paulo has nearly been averted, as the former six-time league champions are up to 12th in the table following a 2-0 win over Sport Recife on Saturday.
Rogerio Ceni has recently seen his group come out more aggressively, firing nine targeted efforts over the weekend after holding Athletico Paranaense to without a shot on target last Wednesday in a 0-0 draw.
In 2021, Tricolor Paulista have been a shadow of their best, and it seems likely that they will finish in the bottom half of the table for only the second time in their previous 16 league campaigns.
They have done a much better job when it comes to chasing after those loose balls and building up play from the back and thus have been rewarded with points in each of their last three games.
There is still an outside chance that they could qualify for the Copa Libertadores next year, trailing Fortaleza for a qualifying position by seven points with only three games remaining, but a spot in the Sudamericana is undoubtedly in their hands, currently in that final position and only a point behind Santos and America Mineiro to move into an even stronger position.
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Team News
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Thiago Santos scored in the second half for Gremio in a losing effort, his third of the campaign, putting him even with Ferreira, Alisson and Vanderson, while Rafinha picked up his team-leading fifth assist of the campaign.
Last Friday, Walter Kannemann replaced Ruan at the back, Vanderson took the place of Bruno Cortez as the starting right-back, Victor Bobsin started as a holding midfielder rather than Lucas Silva, Alisson replaced the suspended Jhonata Robert, Mathias Villasanti took Jaminton Campaz's spot in central midfield and Miguel Borja played as the lone striker instead of Diego Souza.
Jonathan Calleri and Gabriel Sara both tallied for Tricolor Paulista on Saturday, each scoring their fourth of the campaign, moving them into a three-way tie for first with teammate Emiliano Rigoni, while Marquinhos and Martin Benitez collected their first assists of the year.
Tiago Volpi stopped the only four shots that he faced as he now has three successive shutouts and is tied for second in the Brasileiro Serie A in that category with Walter and Fernando Miguel.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Grando; Cortez, Rodrigues, Geromel, Rafinha; Pereira, Santos; Ferreira, Campaz, Costa; Borja
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Vinicius, Arboleda, Miranda, Reinaldo; Sara, Neves, Gomes, Benitez; Rigoni, Calleri
We say: Gremio 0-0 Sao Paulo
Both teams have an illustrious past in Serie A, but neither have played up to their potential this year, nor have they shown a ton of consistency.
Sao Paulo are the third-lowest scoring team in Serie A with only 28 goals, but Gremio have conceded the second-most, so we expect that both sides will have their chances, but neither are all that great at making those opportunities count.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 45.51%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 28.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
