Gremio
3 - 0
Sao Paulo

Thiago (23'), Barbosa (68'), Robert (90+4')
Costa (74'), Grando (85'), Borja (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Rigoni (60'), Miranda (90+1')

Preview

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Brasileiro clash between Gremio and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Both teams have an illustrious past in Serie A, but neither have played up to their potential this year, nor have they shown a ton of consistency. Sao Paulo are the third-lowest scoring team in Serie A with only 28 goals, but Gremio have conceded the second-most, so we expect that both sides will have their chances, but neither are all that great at making those opportunities count. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 45.51%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 28.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.

Result
Gremio	Draw	Sao Paulo
45.51%	25.95%	28.54%

Both teams to score 51.76%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.84%

52.17%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.12%

73.88%

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.13%

22.87%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.39%

56.62%

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.11%

32.89%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.53%

69.47%

Score Analysis

Gremio 45.5%

Sao Paulo 28.55%

Draw 25.95%

Gremio	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 11.09% 2-1 @ 9.1% 2-0 @ 8.19% 3-1 @ 4.48% 3-0 @ 4.03% 3-2 @ 2.49% 4-1 @ 1.65% 4-0 @ 1.49% 4-2 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.08% Total : 45.5%	1-1 @ 12.34% 0-0 @ 7.52% 2-2 @ 5.06% 3-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.95%	0-1 @ 8.37% 1-2 @ 6.86% 0-2 @ 4.65% 1-3 @ 2.54% 2-3 @ 1.88% 0-3 @ 1.72% Other @ 2.52% Total : 28.55%