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Willem II
PSV
Eredivisie | Gameweek 17
Jan 13, 2024 at 8pm UK
Philips Stadion
Excelsior

PSV
3 - 1
Excelsior

de Jong (13', 17', 69')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Sanches Fernandes (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between PSV Eindhoven and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

PSV Eindhoven

All competitions
Eredivisie
Last Game: PSV 1-1 Hamburger SV
Sunday, January 7 at 3.30pm in Club Friendlies 1

SBV Excelsior

All competitions
Eredivisie
Last Game: Spakenburg 2-3 Excelsior
Tuesday, December 19 at 7pm in KNVB Beker

We said: PSV Eindhoven 3-0 SBV Excelsior

 Excelsior scraped a narrow cup win last time out and are in for another tough 90 minutes against a high-flying PSV side. Bosz's men have been utterly dominant in the history of this fixture, and given the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, we are backing the hosts to come away with all three points unscathed. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 76.54%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 3-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.82%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.

Result
PSV EindhovenDrawSBV Excelsior
76.54% (-0.642 -0.64) 13.65% (0.435 0.44) 9.81% (0.2161 0.22)
Both teams to score 59.38% (-1.165 -1.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
74.7% (-1.649 -1.65)25.3% (1.656 1.66)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
54.69% (-2.175 -2.18)45.31% (2.183 2.18)
PSV Eindhoven Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.56% (-0.43600000000001 -0.44)5.44% (0.4439 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
78.73% (-1.302 -1.3)21.27% (1.31 1.31)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.79% (-0.933 -0.93)37.21% (0.941 0.94)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.01% (-0.933 -0.93)73.99% (0.94199999999999 0.94)
Score Analysis
    PSV Eindhoven 76.54%
    SBV Excelsior 9.81%
    Draw 13.65%
PSV EindhovenDrawSBV Excelsior
2-0 @ 8.58% (0.443 0.44)
2-1 @ 8.48% (0.229 0.23)
3-0 @ 8.33% (0.199 0.2)
3-1 @ 8.23% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-0 @ 6.06% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 5.99% (-0.183 -0.18)
1-0 @ 5.89% (0.463 0.46)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.11 -0.11)
5-0 @ 3.53% (-0.119 -0.12)
5-1 @ 3.49% (-0.211 -0.21)
4-2 @ 2.96% (-0.169 -0.17)
5-2 @ 1.73% (-0.152 -0.15)
6-0 @ 1.71% (-0.11 -0.11)
6-1 @ 1.69% (-0.155 -0.16)
4-3 @ 0.98% (-0.083 -0.08)
Other @ 4.83%
Total : 76.54%
1-1 @ 5.82% (0.319 0.32)
2-2 @ 4.19% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
0-0 @ 2.02% (0.212 0.21)
3-3 @ 1.34% (-0.072 -0.07)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 13.65%
1-2 @ 2.88% (0.087 0.09)
0-1 @ 2% (0.163 0.16)
2-3 @ 1.38% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-2 @ 0.99% (0.057 0.06)
1-3 @ 0.95% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 1.61%
Total : 9.81%

How you voted: PSV vs Excelsior

PSV Eindhoven
83.3%
Draw
5.6%
SBV Excelsior
11.1%
18
Head to Head
Apr 8, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 28
PSV
4-0
Excelsior
De Jong (12'), Simons (78'), Silva (82'), Gutierrez (87')
> Preview
Aug 28, 2022 1.30pm
Gameweek 4
Excelsior
1-6
PSV
Horemans (74')
Veerman (2'), Sangare (29', 45'), Simons (55', 84'), Gakpo (59')
Til (68')
> Preview
Mar 2, 2019 6.45pm
Gameweek 24
Excelsior
0-2
PSV
Bergwijn (8', 54')
Lozano (24')
Dec 7, 2018 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
PSV
6-0
Excelsior
De Jong (17', 92'), Van der Meer (34' og.), Mattheij (52' og.), Malen (80'), Bergwijn (89')
Sainsbury (60')

Bruins (55'), van der Meer (64'), El Hamdaoui (67')
Feb 7, 2018 5.30pm
PSV
1-0
Excelsior
Lozano (17')
Brenet (69'), Bergwijn (76')

Fortes (42'), Mattheij (69'), Vermeulen (82')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV17150259134645
2Ajax17123237162139
3FC UtrechtUtrecht1711333428636
4Feyenoord17105240211935
5AZ AlkmaarAZ17102531171432
6FC Twente1794432211131
7Go Ahead Eagles177463027325
8Fortuna SittardSittard177462525025
9Willem II176472119222
10NAC BredaNAC Breda177191927-822
11Heerenveen176381731-1421
12NECNijmegen1752102324-117
13PEC Zwolle174581626-1017
14Groningen164481426-1216
15Heracles163581833-1514
16Sparta RotterdamSparta172691426-1212
17Almere CityAlmere City1723121037-279
18RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk1714121841-237
> Eredivisie Full Table


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