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Willem II
PSV
Eredivisie | Gameweek 17
Jan 13, 2024 at 8pm UK
Philips Stadion
Excelsior

PSV
3 - 1
Excelsior

de Jong (13', 17', 69')
FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between PSV Eindhoven and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: PSV 1-1 Hamburger SV
Sunday, January 7 at 3.30pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Spakenburg 2-3 Excelsior
Tuesday, December 19 at 7pm in KNVB Beker

We said: PSV Eindhoven 3-0 SBV Excelsior

Excelsior scraped a narrow cup win last time out and are in for another tough 90 minutes against a high-flying PSV side. Bosz's men have been utterly dominant in the history of this fixture, and given the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, we are backing the hosts to come away with all three points unscathed. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 76.54%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 3-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.82%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.

Result
PSV EindhovenDrawSBV Excelsior
76.54% (-0.642 -0.64) 13.65% (0.435 0.44) 9.81% (0.2161 0.22)
Both teams to score 59.38% (-1.165 -1.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
74.7% (-1.649 -1.65)25.3% (1.656 1.66)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
54.69% (-2.175 -2.18)45.31% (2.183 2.18)
PSV Eindhoven Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.56% (-0.43600000000001 -0.44)5.44% (0.4439 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
78.73% (-1.302 -1.3)21.27% (1.31 1.31)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.79% (-0.933 -0.93)37.21% (0.941 0.94)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.01% (-0.933 -0.93)73.99% (0.94199999999999 0.94)
Score Analysis
    PSV Eindhoven 76.54%
    SBV Excelsior 9.81%
    Draw 13.65%
PSV EindhovenDrawSBV Excelsior
2-0 @ 8.58% (0.443 0.44)
2-1 @ 8.48% (0.229 0.23)
3-0 @ 8.33% (0.199 0.2)
3-1 @ 8.23% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-0 @ 6.06% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 5.99% (-0.183 -0.18)
1-0 @ 5.89% (0.463 0.46)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.11 -0.11)
5-0 @ 3.53% (-0.119 -0.12)
5-1 @ 3.49% (-0.211 -0.21)
4-2 @ 2.96% (-0.169 -0.17)
5-2 @ 1.73% (-0.152 -0.15)
6-0 @ 1.71% (-0.11 -0.11)
6-1 @ 1.69% (-0.155 -0.16)
4-3 @ 0.98% (-0.083 -0.08)
Other @ 4.83%
Total : 76.54%
1-1 @ 5.82% (0.319 0.32)
2-2 @ 4.19% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
0-0 @ 2.02% (0.212 0.21)
3-3 @ 1.34% (-0.072 -0.07)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 13.65%
1-2 @ 2.88% (0.087 0.09)
0-1 @ 2% (0.163 0.16)
2-3 @ 1.38% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-2 @ 0.99% (0.057 0.06)
1-3 @ 0.95% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 1.61%
Total : 9.81%

How you voted: PSV vs Excelsior

PSV Eindhoven
83.3%
Draw
5.6%
SBV Excelsior
11.1%
18
Head to Head
Apr 8, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 28
PSV
4-0
Excelsior
De Jong (12'), Simons (78'), Silva (82'), Gutierrez (87')
Aug 28, 2022 1.30pm
Gameweek 4
Excelsior
1-6
PSV
Horemans (74')
Veerman (2'), Sangare (29', 45'), Simons (55', 84'), Gakpo (59')
Til (68')
Mar 2, 2019 6.45pm
Gameweek 24
Excelsior
0-2
PSV
Bergwijn (8', 54')
Lozano (24')
Dec 7, 2018 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
PSV
6-0
Excelsior
De Jong (17', 92'), Van der Meer (34' og.), Mattheij (52' og.), Malen (80'), Bergwijn (89')
Sainsbury (60')

Bruins (55'), van der Meer (64'), El Hamdaoui (67')
Feb 7, 2018 5.30pm
PSV
1-0
Excelsior
Lozano (17')
Brenet (69'), Bergwijn (76')

Fortes (42'), Mattheij (69'), Vermeulen (82')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV1312014593636
2FC UtrechtUtrecht12101122121031
3Ajax1292127111629
4Feyenoord1384131131828
5FC Twente1374226121425
6AZ AlkmaarAZ1362525151020
7Go Ahead Eagles135351820-218
8Fortuna SittardSittard135261418-417
9NECNijmegen135172012816
10Willem II134451514116
11NAC BredaNAC Breda135171423-916
12Heerenveen134271326-1314
13Heracles133461425-1113
14PEC Zwolle133371424-1012
15Groningen133371224-1212
16Sparta RotterdamSparta132561320-711
17Almere CityAlmere City13139630-246
18RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk1312101233-215


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