Eredivisie | Gameweek 15

Dec 8, 2023 at 7pm UK

De Grolsch Veste

FC Twente
4 - 2
Excelsior

Ugalde (45'), van Wolfswinkel (59' pen., 80'), Taha (85')
Smal (67'), Propper (77')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Parrott (9'), Nieuwpoort (13')
Naujoks (24'), Dijkhuizen (25'), Driouech (26'), Horemans (57'), Nieuwpoort (59')
Zagre (24')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Eredivisie clash between FC Twente and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Twente

All competitions

Last Game: Go Ahead Eagles 1-3 FC Twente
Sunday, December 3 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

SBV Excelsior

All competitions

Last Game: RKC Waalwijk 2-2 Excelsior
Saturday, December 2 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

We said: FC Twente 2-1 SBV Excelsior

Apart from when PSV came to town at the end of last month, Twente are unbeaten at De Grolsch Veste this season and will be confident of adding three points to their tally on Friday. Excelsior were unconvincing during their stalemate at Waalwijk on the weekend, and we feel that the Kralingers' winless run in the Eredivisie will continue in Enschede. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 68.73%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 13.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 3-1 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.75%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.

Result
FC Twente	Draw	SBV Excelsior
68.73% ( 0.17)	17.31% ( -0.06)	13.96% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 58.63% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.56% (

0.02)

32.44% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.93% (

0.02)

54.07% (

-0.02)

FC Twente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.42% (

0.04)

8.58% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.35% (

0.11)

29.65% (

-0.11)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.14% (

-0.15)

35.86% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.36% (

-0.15)

72.64% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

FC Twente 68.73%

SBV Excelsior 13.96%

Draw 17.31%

FC Twente	Draw	SBV Excelsior
2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.28% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.45% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 1.2% ( 0) 6-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.37% Total : 68.73%	1-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.08% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 17.31%	1-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 3.16% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.19% Total : 13.96%