Copa Sudamericana | First Round

Mar 10, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Tolima
1 - 0
Junior

Hernandez (7')
David Rios (31'), Quinones (37'), Sosa (44'), Esparragoza (55')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sandoval (10'), Scarpeta (45+4'), Albornoz (46')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Deportes Tolima and Atletico Junior.

Form, Standings, Stats

Deportes Tolima

Last Game: Flamengo 7-1 Tolima
Thursday, July 7 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Atletico Junior

Last Game: Junior 0-4 Union
Friday, May 27 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportes Tolima win with a probability of 43.57%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Atletico Junior had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Tolima win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.78%) and 2-1 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.13%), while for an Atletico Junior win it was 0-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Deportes Tolima in this match.

Result
Deportes Tolima	Draw	Atletico Junior
43.57% ( -0.11)	28.72% ( 0.17)	27.7% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 43.47% (

-0.47)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.49% (

-0.57)

62.5% (

0.57)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.89% (

-0.41)

82.11% (

0.42)

Deportes Tolima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.46% (

-0.33)

28.54% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.67% (

-0.42)

64.33% (

0.42)

Atletico Junior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.84% (

-0.37)

39.16% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.13% (

-0.35)

75.87% (

0.35)

Score Analysis

Deportes Tolima 43.57%

Atletico Junior 27.7%

Draw 28.7%

Deportes Tolima	Draw	Atletico Junior
1-0 @ 14.01% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 8.78% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.24% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.44% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.59% Total : 43.57%	1-1 @ 13.13% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 11.17% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.54% Total : 28.7%	0-1 @ 10.47% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 6.16% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.49% Total : 27.7%