Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Aug 10, 2022 at 11.15pm UK

Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Ceara
2 - 1
Sao Paulo

(agg: -)

Mendoza (44'), Castilho (63')
Richardson (23'), Luis (77'), Vinicius (87')

FT
(aet)

Vinicius (54')
Galoppo (17'), Vinicius (26'), Miranda (86'), Calleri (90+1')

Sao Paulo win 4-3 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Ceara and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sao Paulo

Last Six:

Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-2 Flamengo
Sunday, August 7 at 12.30am in Brasileiro

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
10	America Mineiro	21	-6	27
11	Sao Paulo	21	1	26
12	Ceara	21	0	25

Ceara have proven tough to beat in recent times, but we think that Sao Paulo can avoid defeat, too, meaning they would progress to the semi-finals. It is tough to envisage a particularly open game with the onus on the hosts to attack, especially with this not being their usual gameplan. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 43.2%. A draw had a probability of 31% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 25.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.26%) and 2-1 (7.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.6%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (11.65%).

Result
Ceara	Draw	Sao Paulo
43.2% ( 0.06)	30.98% ( 0.01)	25.81% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 37.14% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

30.27% (

-0.04)

69.73% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

12.94% (

-0.03)

87.06% (

0.02)

Ceara Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.57% (

0.01)

32.43% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.05% (

0.02)

68.95% (

-0.02)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.96% (

-0.08)

45.04% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.03% (

-0.07)

80.97% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Ceara 43.2%

Sao Paulo 25.81%

Draw 30.97%

Ceara	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 16.44% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.39% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.77% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.11% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 1.77% Total : 43.2%	0-0 @ 14.6% ( 0.02) 1-1 @ 13.11% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.31% Total : 30.97%	0-1 @ 11.65% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.23% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.66% Total : 25.81%