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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 45%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 29.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 1-0 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Cardiff City | Draw | Leeds United |
29.17% ( 0.01) | 25.83% ( 0) | 45% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 52.51% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.63% | 51.37% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.81% ( -0) | 73.19% ( 0.01) |
Cardiff City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.99% ( 0) | 32.01% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.53% ( 0) | 68.47% ( 0) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.23% | 22.77% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.54% ( -0) | 56.47% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Cardiff City | Draw | Leeds United |
1-0 @ 8.3% ( 0) 2-1 @ 7% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.73% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.66% 3-2 @ 1.97% 3-0 @ 1.8% ( 0) Other @ 2.72% Total : 29.17% | 1-1 @ 12.28% 0-0 @ 7.29% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.83% | 0-1 @ 10.78% 1-2 @ 9.09% 0-2 @ 7.98% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.48% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.94% 2-3 @ 2.55% 1-4 @ 1.66% 0-4 @ 1.46% 2-4 @ 0.95% Other @ 2.11% Total : 45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
4 | Burnley | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 27 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 25 |
6 | Watford | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 25 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 24 |
8 | Millwall | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 22 |
11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
12 | Derby CountyDerby | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
13 | Stoke CityStoke | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 19 |
14 | Norwich CityNorwich | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 18 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 18 |
16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 17 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 16 |
18 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
19 | Hull City | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 15 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 15 |
21 | Luton TownLuton | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
22 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 10 |
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