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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
Result | ||
St Pauli | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
44.98% ( -0.26) | 23.99% ( 0.03) | 31.03% ( 0.23) |
Both teams to score 59.71% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.58% ( -0.04) | 42.41% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.18% ( -0.04) | 64.82% ( 0.04) |
St Pauli Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.93% ( -0.13) | 19.07% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.33% ( -0.21) | 50.67% ( 0.21) |
Holstein Kiel Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.78% ( 0.13) | 26.22% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.68% ( 0.17) | 61.32% ( -0.17) |
Score Analysis |
St Pauli | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.29% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.08% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.79% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.1% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.3% Total : 44.98% | 1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.15% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.99% | 1-2 @ 7.42% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.31% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.34% Total : 31.03% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 33 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 29 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
5 | Freiburg | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
6 | Stuttgart | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 23 |
7 | Mainz 05Mainz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 |
8 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 22 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 22 |
10 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 21 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Hoffenheim | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 14 |
15 | St Pauli | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
16 | Heidenheim | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 37 | -23 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 3 |
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