Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 61.34%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 15.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.34%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.