Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 50.32%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 23.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.02%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (8.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.