Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 41.64%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Bahia win was 1-0 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.