Asian Cup

Asian Cup | Semi-Finals

Feb 7, 2024 at 3pm UK

Al Thumama Stadium

Iran
2 - 3
Qatar

Azmoun (4'), Jahanbakhsh (51' pen.)
Torabi (18'), Hajsafi (21')
Khalilzadeh (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Gaber (17'), Afif (43'), Ali (82')
Ali Mukhtar (40'), Fathy (49'), Marquez (90')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Asian Cup clash between Iran and Qatar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iran

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Iran 2-1 Japan
Saturday, February 3 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Iran	3	5	9
2	United Arab Emirates	3	1	4
3	Palestine	3	0	4
4	Hong Kong	0	0	0

Qatar

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Qatar 1-1 Uzbekistan (3-2 pen.)
Saturday, February 3 at 3.30pm in Asian Cup

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Qatar	3	5	9
2	Tajikistan	3	0	4
3	China	3	-1	2
4	Lebanon	3	-4	1

This match could go either way, as both sides have been pushed to the limit and found a way to escape some very difficult situations. We are giving the hosts the edge, however, because of their defensive organisation and experience in close games and knockout fixtures. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 61.42%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Qatar had a probability of 16.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Qatar win it was 0-1 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.

Result
Iran	Draw	Qatar
61.42% ( -0.34)	22.32% ( 0.19)	16.25% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 46.97% (

-0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.48% (

-0.51)

50.52% (

0.52)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.56% (

-0.45)

72.44% (

0.46)

Iran Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.02% (

-0.29)

15.98% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.72% (

-0.53)

45.28% (

0.54)

Qatar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.9% (

-0.11)

44.1% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.8% (

-0.09)

80.2% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Iran 61.41%

Qatar 16.25%

Draw 22.32%

Iran	Draw	Qatar
1-0 @ 12.92% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 11.84% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 7.24% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 5.93% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.32% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.72% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.98% Total : 61.41%	1-1 @ 10.57% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.73% Total : 22.32%	0-1 @ 5.77% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.36% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.18% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.53% Total : 16.25%