Australian A-League | 2nd Leg

May 18, 2024 at 7.30am UK

Westpac Stadium

Wellington
1 - 2
Victory

(Melbourne Victory win 2-1 on aggregate)

Zawada (90+9')
Salas (90+1')

FT
(aet)

Traore (82'), Ikonomidis (102')
Arzani (30'), Chapman (97')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 0-0 Wellington
Sunday, May 12 at 7am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 0-0 Wellington
Sunday, May 12 at 7am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

We say: Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Melbourne Victory (Melbourne Victory to win 2-1 on aggregate)

With these two teams having each finished in the top three of the standings, we do not expect much between them in this second leg. However, with Melbourne having had more game time of late, we feel that their extra sharpness could prove key in securing a place in the final. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.33%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 29.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%).

Result
Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne Victory
29.96% ( -0.22)	23.71% ( -0.08)	46.33% ( 0.29)

Both teams to score 60.09% (

0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.34% (

0.24)

41.65% (

-0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.94% (

0.25)

64.05% (

-0.25)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.47% (

-0.02)

26.53% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.27% (

-0.02)

61.73% (

0.02)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.78% (

0.21)

18.22% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.76% (

0.36)

49.23% (

-0.36)

Score Analysis

Wellington Phoenix 29.96%

Melbourne Victory 46.33%

Draw 23.7%

Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 7.25% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 6.41% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.26% Total : 29.96%	1-1 @ 10.91% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.17% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.83% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.7%	1-2 @ 9.3% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.01% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 5.28% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 3.98% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 2.25% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.49% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.61% Total : 46.33%