Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 42.52%. A win for FC Ingolstadt 04 had a probability of 32.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest FC Ingolstadt 04 win was 1-0 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.