A match that could have enormous implications for who remains and who leaves the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A this season will take place on Thursday when Sport Recife host Bahia at Arena Pernambuco.
Leao currently sit in 18th place, six points back of Bahia, who are the last team outside of the relegation zone at the moment with 36 points after 31 games played.
Match preview
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Recife is a city known for having one of the top medical hubs' in all of Brazil, but unfortunately for the local team, no doctor or specialist of any sort has been able to find a cure for their struggles since returning to Serie A in 2020.
In their second season in the top flight since earning a promotion, they continue to be hampered by the same thing which set them back a year ago, an inability to score goals when they need it most.
Last year, they scored a league-low 31 times, surviving a descent into Serie B by a single point, and so far in 2021, they have the fewest goals scored once again (20) and have played the most games (33) of anyone in Serie A.
When you add it all up, Gustavo Florentin and his side will have their work cut out for them to remain in the top tier of Brazilian football for another season.
They have done a better job in limiting the number of targeted efforts that they concede, but they still have a tendency to allow a shot or two in an excellent scoring position which has made the difference between one point and zero.
Even though they have goals in consecutive matches for the first time since early October, Leao were on the short end of both games, falling 3-2 to America Mineiro and 2-1 against Ceara.
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Following a series of solid performances in league play, Bahia suffered a setback last weekend, getting trounced by the defending champions Flamengo.
That defeat has their fate in the top flight up in the air, currently sitting outside of the relegation zone, even with Juventude, but holding the tiebreaker with an extra victory.
Things had been going a lot smoother for Guto Ferreira and his players since early October, unbeaten in seven straight contests before their match on Sunday and posting five clean sheets.
At the start of their streak last month, they were sparkling on the back end against two strong sides in Athletico Paranaense and Palmeiras, who they beat and tied respectively, and then they benefitted from a favourable schedule and took advantage of facing some weaker opponents who are currently in the middle of the pack in the league or near the bottom of the standings.
Coming into this encounter, Baea are without a goal in their last three road games, unable to move the ball up the field quickly enough and thus have rarely created much in terms of scoring opportunities.
In his first stint with this team, Ferreira was able to guide them into the top flight when they finished fourth in Serie B in 2016, and now five years later, his job will be to maintain their top-flight status beyond 2021.
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Team News
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Mikael scored for a second match running, but again, it was not enough as Sport Recife conceded a goal this past weekend from Marlon with 10 minutes remaining, allowing the winning goal beyond the 80th minute for a third consecutive match.
Neilton is out with a knee problem, Joao Igor has a ruptured knee ligament, Thiago Lopes will not be available after suffering an Achilles tendon rupture last month, Leandro Barcia has a muscle injury and Rafael Thyere was cautioned in the first half against Ceara, meaning that he will miss this match through suspension.
Mailson stopped all four of the Bahia shots fired his way back in August, collecting a clean sheet as he is currently tied with Walter in that department with 12.
Bahia will not have Matheus Bahia available on Thursday after the local 22-year-old left-back, who grew up in Salvador, picked up two yellow cards over the weekend, and Rossi, who leads them in assists this season with five, will not be eligible to play either after picking up a straight red card just past the hour mark versus Flamengo.
Gilberto, who is tied with Hulk for second in the Brasileiro Serie A in goals with 12, has not scored in three successive outings, but with a goal in this one he can pull even with Michael for the lead in the race for the Golden Boot.
Ferreira made only one change to their starting 11 this weekend as Edson began as a holding midfielder instead of Patrick, who was not available.
Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Mailson; Sander, Sabino, Hayner, Ewerthon; Marcao; Felipe, Ronaldo, Ze Welison, Paulinho; Mikael
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Fernandes; Ligger, Otavio, Conti, Guedes; Araujo, Daniel; Capixaba, Mugni, Rai; Gilberto
We say: Sport Recife 1-2 Bahia
These teams play with a reasonably conservative approach focusing on an intelligent defensive shape, but Bahia will have an edge in terms of individual quality, especially with Gilberto, who has produced many moments of magic throughout the campaign.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sport Recife win with a probability of 42.52%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 28.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sport Recife win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 2-1 (7.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.24%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sport Recife in this match.
