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Serie A
Spezia Calcio logo
Serie A | Gameweek 35
May 13, 2023 at 5pm UK
Stadio Alberto Picco
Milan logo

Spezia
2 - 0
AC Milan

Wisniewski (75'), Esposito (85')
Amian (38')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Diaz (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Spezia and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spezia

All competitions
Last Game: Cremonese 2-0 Spezia
Saturday, May 6 at 7.45pm in Serie A

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 0-2 Inter Milan
Wednesday, May 10 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Spezia 0-1 AC Milan

 Between two huge derbies and amid a worrying run of injuries, Milan may make heavy weather of seeing off their struggling hosts - particularly as the Rossoneri's second string have proved impotent when called upon this season. Spezia's woes in the final third can aid their cause, though; helping them edge to victory and stay in contention for a top-four finish. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 58.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 19.21%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.29%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.67%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.

Result
SpeziaDrawAC Milan
19.21% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09) 22.48% (0.071000000000002 0.07) 58.3% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Both teams to score 52.06% (-0.396 -0.4)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.38% (-0.449 -0.45)46.62% (0.448 0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.11% (-0.422 -0.42)68.89% (0.42100000000001 0.42)
Spezia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.74% (-0.364 -0.36)38.25% (0.364 0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.98% (-0.353 -0.35)75.02% (0.352 0.35)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.32% (-0.145 -0.14)15.68% (0.145 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.27% (-0.27 -0.27)44.73% (0.27 0.27)
Score Analysis
    Spezia 19.21%
    AC Milan 58.29%
    Draw 22.47%
SpeziaDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 5.76% (0.052 0.05)
2-1 @ 5.13% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-0 @ 2.77% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-1 @ 1.64% (-0.027 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.52% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 19.21%
1-1 @ 10.67% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 6% (0.112 0.11)
2-2 @ 4.75% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.025 -0.03)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 22.47%
0-1 @ 11.11% (0.15 0.15)
0-2 @ 10.29% (0.09 0.09)
1-2 @ 9.89% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
0-3 @ 6.36% (0.024 0.02)
1-3 @ 6.11% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-4 @ 2.95% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.94% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-4 @ 2.83% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-4 @ 1.36% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-5 @ 1.09% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-5 @ 1.05% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 58.29%

How you voted: Spezia vs AC Milan

Spezia
20.7%
Draw
17.2%
AC Milan
62.1%
58
Head to Head
Nov 5, 2022 7.45pm
gameweek 13
AC Milan
2-1
Spezia
Hernandez (21'), Giroud (89')
Bennacer (40')
Maldini (59')
Jan 17, 2022 5.30pm
gameweek 22
AC Milan
1-2
Spezia
Leao (45+1')
Kalulu (22'), Gabbia (62')
Agudelo (64'), Gyasi (90+6')
Gyasi (19'), Kiwior (32'), Provedel (44'), Maggiore (65'), Bastoni (90+2')
Sep 25, 2021 2pm
gameweek 6
Spezia
1-2
AC Milan
Verde (80')
Sala (25'), Nikolaou (89')
Maldini (48'), Diaz (86')
Maldini (58'), Hernandez (90')
Feb 13, 2021 7.45pm
gameweek 22
Spezia
2-0
AC Milan
Maggiore (56'), Bastoni (67')
Vignali (23'), Bastoni (25'), Erlic (58')

Dalot (65')
Oct 4, 2020 5pm
gameweek 3
AC Milan
3-0
Spezia
Leao (57', 78'), Hernandez (76')
Calhanoglu (47')

Ricci (32'), Gyasi (40')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli21162335142150
2Inter Milan20145151183347
3Atalanta BCAtalanta21134446242243
4Lazio2112363728939
5Juventus21813034171737
6Fiorentina2096533211233
7Bologna208933226633
8AC Milan208752921831
9Roma217683127427
10Udinese217592432-826
11Torino215882126-523
12Genoa215881830-1223
13Como215792634-822
14CagliariCagliari2156102334-1121
15Empoli214892028-820
16Parma214892636-1020
17Lecce2155111536-2120
18Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2161142447-2319
19VeneziaVenezia2136121934-1515
20Monza2127122031-1113
> Serie A Full Table


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