We said: Spezia 0-1 AC Milan
Between two huge derbies and amid a worrying run of injuries, Milan may make heavy weather of seeing off their struggling hosts - particularly as the Rossoneri's second string have proved impotent when called upon this season. Spezia's woes in the final third can aid their cause, though; helping them edge to victory and stay in contention for a top-four finish.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 58.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 19.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.29%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.67%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
-0.09) 
0.07) 
