River Plate and Atletico Mineiro will meet for the very first time when they face each other in the first leg of their Copa Libertadores quarter-final clash on Thursday.
The hosts have won just one of their last five home matches across all competitions, while the visitors have lost just one of their last six games on the road.
Match preview
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River Plate progressed from the last 16 of the Copa Libertadores for the sixth time in the last seven years, after beating Argentinos Juniors 3-1 on aggregate last month.
A 1-1 draw on home soil in the first leg was followed by a 2-0 away victory in the second leg, with Braian Romero scoring a brace to confirm their place in the last eight.
Marcelo Gallardo's men had been struggling defensively earlier this year, conceding in 11 of their 12 matches before their second-leg tie with Argentinos, which saw them win just three games during this run. However, since then they have kept four clean sheets in their last six games, conceding just three times.
Their most recent match ended in defeat, losing 2-1 away at Godoy Cruz in the Argentinian top flight. That result has seen Los Millonarios drop to ninth place in the Clausura, though they are only four points behind league leaders Independiente.
River Plate are one of the favourites to go all the way this year and win their fifth Copa Libertadores crown, but a strong defensive performance will be needed on Thursday if they are to come out on top against an in-form Atletico Mineiro side.
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Cuca's men have lost just one of their last 12 games across all competitions, which includes an eight-game winning run in the Brasileiro, which has helped them climb to the summit, two points clear of their nearest challengers Palmeiras.
During this time, the Alvinegro also advanced from the last 16 of the Copa Libertadores by eliminating South American giants Boca Juniors, winning 3-1 on penalties after a goalless 120 minutes.
Since winning the competition for the first and only time in their history, beating Paraguayan side Olimpia in the 2013 final, Atletico Mineiro have reached the quarter-final stage just twice, with this year being their second time.
Having already beaten strong Argentinian opposition in the previous round, Mineiro will be confident that they can defeat River Plate over two legs.
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Team News
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River Plate's 38-year-old centre-back Javier Pinola is set for a spell on the sidelines after suffering a forearm fracture last weekend.
Paulo Diaz is seemingly a first-choice centre-back for Gallardo alongside David Martinez, and both players are set to be recalled to the first XI at the expense of Jonatan Maidana and the injured Pinola, who both started the last league match.
Experienced midfielder Enzo Perez could start alongside Agustin Palavecino, with Nicolas De La Cruz set to play in an advanced midfield role behind forwards Romero, Julian Alvarez, and Matias Suarez.
As for Atletico Mineiro, they will still be without attacking midfielder Matias Zaracho, who is suffering with an abductor muscle tear.
Left-back Guilherme Arana, who recently picked up a goal medal representing Brazil at the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, is set to have a break from club action, with Dodo expected to keep his place in the side.
Cuca will be relying on former Porto and Zenit St Petersburg forward Hulk to find the net on Thursday. The 35-year-old has scored 17 goals across all competitions so far this campaign, including six goals from eight appearances in this year's Copa Libertadores.
River Plate possible starting lineup:
Armani; Montiel, Diaz, Martinez, Casco; Palavecino, Perez; De La Cruz; Alvarez, Romero, Suarez
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Mariano, Silva, Rever, Dodo; Tche Tche, Allan; Savarino, Fernandez, Vargas; Hulk
We say: River Plate 0-1 Atletico Mineiro
River Plate and Atletico Mineiro will be keen to ensure that they remain in the tie for the second leg, so both teams may take a cautious approach to Thursday's game.
A closely-fought contest is set to be played out in Buenos Aires, however we feel that the visitors will secure a narrow victory.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 44.38%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 32.06% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.58%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest River Plate win was 2-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
