The Bundesliga's highlight match of the weekend sees the title-challenging duo of RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund do battle at the Red Bull Arena on Saturday evening.
Both sides will be looking to bounce back after midweek disappointments in the Champions League, with the hosts in particular looking to put together a consistent run of form during a poor start to the campaign.
Match preview
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A spirited performance against Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday was not enough for Leipzig to keep alive their slim hopes of reaching the Champions League knockout stages.
Dominik Szoboszlai equalised from the penalty spot in stoppage time to provide Die Roten Bullen with their first point of the European campaign, with the scoreline finishing 2-2.
Christopher Nkunku continued his fine start to the season by netting his 10th goal after just eight minutes, with Andre Silva then missing a penalty just a few minutes later, before their French visitors turned the game on its head before half time.
Jesse Marsch's side were perhaps unfortunate not to win the game in the end, although their shaky defence was regularly threatened by PSG counter attacks.
The American boss has endured an inconsistent start to his time in charge, with Leipzig struggling down in eighth place in the Bundesliga after the opening 10 fixtures.
However, it is the poor away record that overshadows a near-perfect home run during the early stages of this 2021-22 season, with four wins and just the one defeat being recorded at the Red Bull Arena so far.
Stuttgart, Hertha Berlin, VfL Bochum and Greuther Furth have all been comprehensively beaten on home soil, although the only real test was provided by Bayern Munich, which Leipzig failed woefully by falling 4-1 to the league leaders.
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Meanwhile, visitors Dortmund endured a disappointing Wednesday night themselves in the Champions League, after losing 3-1 at home to Ajax.
Mats Hummels was shown a straight red card inside the opening half-an-hour, which left the Black and Yellows with a mountain to climb in their vital European tie.
Marco Reus surprisingly gave BVB the lead just minutes later, however, in what was a spirited performance for large periods by Marco Rose's men.
Although, once Dusan Tadic equalised 18 minutes from time to break down the stubborn Dortmund backline, heads dropped and they were well beaten in the end to leave their chances of reaching the knockout stages in the balance.
Attentions return to league action on Saturday though, where Dortmund have put together four successive victories, despite the absence of talisman Erling Braut Haaland for three of these wins.
Dortmund have struggled without the Norwegian striker in the past, but have managed to grind out results in recent weeks that has seen them maintain second place in the table, where they sit just one point behind leaders Bayern.
Thorgan Hazard has helped to fill the void left by Haaland recently, and his goal last weekend helped Dortmund to a 2-0 win on home soil against FC Koln, although the scoreline flattered the hosts in a far-from-convincing display.
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Team News
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Willi Orban's withdrawal at half time on Wednesday means Leipzig will be without four defenders for the visit of Dortmund on Saturday.
Orban joins long-term absentees Marcel Halstenberg and Marcelo Saracchi on the sidelines, as well as Germany international Lukas Klostermann.
As a result, a young back three of Nordi Mukiele, Mohamed Simakan and Josko Gvardiol is to be expected, whilst Yussuf Poulsen is likely to regain the central striker role from Silva again.
As for Dortmund, they will remain without Haaland until after the international break, meaning Hazard is likely to retain his 'false nine' role ahead of Donyell Malen in their forward line.
Marius Wolf has been filling in at left-back in the absence of the injured Marcel Schmelzer, Nico Schulz and Raphael Guerreiro, but he himself was injured in the midweek defeat to Ajax.
Felix Passlack is likely to deputise for him, with Mateu Morey, Giovanni Reyna, Mahmoud Dahoud and Emre Can all ruled out in a lengthy injury list for the visitors.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Mukiele, Simakan, Gvardiol; Adams, Haidara, Laimer, Angelino; Nkunku, Szoboszlai; Poulsen
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Akanji, Hummels, Pongracic; Meunier, Bellingham, Witsel, Passlack; Brandt, Hazard, Reus
We say: RB Leipzig 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
Although Leipzig have been inconsistent so far this season, as well as struggling against their opponents in recent meetings, we can see them coming out victorious against Dortmund on Saturday.
Their home form has been largely strong so far this campaign, and with Haaland featuring on a lengthy injury list for the visitors, we are predicting a narrow victory for the hosts in an entertaining encounter.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 40.45%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 35.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.62%) and 2-0 (5.98%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for RB Leipzig in this match.
