Copa Libertadores holders Palmeiras will be looking to progress to their fourth successive quarter-final when they host Universidad Catolica for the second leg of their last-16 tie on Wednesday.
The Chilean visitors head to Brazil hoping to overturn a one-goal deficit from the first leg, as they aim to reach the last eight for the first time in 10 years.
Match preview
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Palmeiras claimed a narrow 1-0 win in the first leg against Catolica last week, thanks to a controversial penalty converted by Raphael Veiga three minutes before half time.
Deyverson's cross from a tight angle inside the box seemingly struck German Lanaro's thigh before brushing his forearm, which was down by his side. Despite that, VAR eventually awarded a spot-kick for the Brazilians, with Veiga scoring his ninth goal of the season.
Since last week's first leg, Palmeiras extended their winning run across all competitions to seven matches, when they beat Atletico Goianiense 3-0 away from home in the Brasileiro. An own goal from Eder broke the deadlock in the 59th minute, before stoppage-time strikes from Gustavo Scarpa and Breno Lopes ensured the Alviverde came away with all three points.
Palmeiras, who sit at the summit of the Brazilian top flight, head into Wednesday's game in fine form, though head coach Abel Ferreira is aware of the threat that Catolica are likely to pose.
Securing at least a draw in midweek will see the Alviverde progress to the quarter-finals for the fourth successive year, keeping their hopes of retaining the Copa Libertadores alive.
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Universidad Catolica boss Gus Poyet will be pleased with how his side performed against the defending champions in the first leg, having 59% possession and nearly three times as many attempts on goal than their opponents. Nevertheless, the Chilean outfit were defeated, and are sure to feel aggrieved after conceding a controversial spot-kick.
Catolica have been struggling in recent weeks, winning only one of their last six matches across all competitions, which was a 9-8 victory on penalties against Deportes Iquique in the Copa Chile second round last month.
Their most recent result was a goalless stalemate in the Chilean Primera Division at home against Colo-Colo last Saturday, their fourth successive game without scoring a goal.
A lack of form in the final third will concern Poyet, but as his side are trailing by just one goal, the tie is far from over and they remain hopeful of causing an upset on Wednesday.
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Team News
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Palmeiras forward Rony – who is the joint-top goalscorer in the Copa Libertadores with six – is set to miss out with a thigh injury, while Luan and Luiz Adriano are also ruled out with respective calf and knee problems.
In addition, Gabriel Menino is unavailable for selection as he is away with the Brazilian national team in Tokyo for the 2020 Olympics.
Ferreira may be tempted to name the same starting lineup that played in the first leg, which could see Veiga, Scarpa and Lopes all feature in advanced midfield roles in behind striker Deyverson.
Even though goalkeeper Jailson has started five of the last six league matches, Weverton has started all but one of their Copa Libertadores group-stage games, as well as last week's first leg, and he is set to be given the nod once again on Wednesday.
As for Catolica, they have no injury concerns heading to Brazil, though winger Gonzalo Tapia – who started the first leg – will be monitored as he has recently recovered from a torn muscle.
Left-back Alfonso Parot could be brought back into the first XI at the expense of Jose Pedro Fuenzalida, which would likely see Raimundo Rebolledo switch over to right-back.
Ignacio Saavedra is set to be joined in central midfield by Felipe Gutierrez and Juan Leiva, while striker Fernando Zampedri is expected to lead the line in attack.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Kuscevic, Gomez, Vina; Danilo, Ze Rafael; Veiga, Scarpa, Lopes; Deyverson
Universidad Catolica possible starting lineup:
Perez; Rebolledo, Lanaro, Huerta, Parot; Gutierrez, Saavedra, Leiva; Tapia, Zampedri, Valencia
We say: Palmeiras 2-0 Universidad Catolica (3-0 on aggregate)
Palmeiras have found their groove over the last month and, as strong favourites for Wednesday's match, the hosts are expected to extend their winning run to eight games.
Even though Catolica are sure to put up a fight, the defending champions should have no problems in progressing to the quarter-finals.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 62.65%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 14.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.78%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.51%), while for a Universidad Catolica win it was 0-1 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Palmeiras in this match.
