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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 47.14%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.
Result | ||
Reading | Draw | Burton Albion |
47.14% ( -3.87) | 24.63% ( 0.45) | 28.23% ( 3.42) |
Both teams to score 55.76% ( 1.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.17% ( 0.62) | 46.83% ( -0.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.92% ( 0.58) | 69.08% ( -0.57) |
Reading Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.06% ( -1.33) | 19.94% ( 1.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.91% ( -2.18) | 52.09% ( 2.19) |
Burton Albion Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.65% ( 3.02) | 30.35% ( -3.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.46% ( 3.45) | 66.54% ( -3.45) |
Score Analysis |
Reading | Draw | Burton Albion |
1-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.68) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 7.87% ( -0.91) 3-1 @ 5.04% ( -0.36) 3-0 @ 4.23% ( -0.69) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.03% ( -0.24) 4-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.36) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.91% Total : 47.14% | 1-1 @ 11.63% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.31) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.63% | 0-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 6.94% ( 0.65) 0-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.56) 1-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.46) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.29) 0-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.34) Other @ 3.09% Total : 28.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 42 |
3 | Wrexham | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 39 |
5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 36 |
6 | Reading | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 31 |
7 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 31 |
8 | Barnsley | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 30 |
9 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 28 |
10 | Blackpool | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 26 |
11 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 25 |
12 | Stevenage | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 25 |
13 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 24 |
14 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 24 |
15 | Exeter CityExeter | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 24 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 23 |
17 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 23 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 22 |
19 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 21 |
20 | Bristol Rovers | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 19 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 17 |
23 | Burton Albion | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 12 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 19 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 19 | 39 | -20 | 11 |
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