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League One
Plymouth Argyle
League One | Gameweek 45
Apr 29, 2023 at 3pm UK
Home Park
Burton Albion

Plymouth
1 - 0
Burton Albion

Ennis (45')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ashworth (66'), Powell (89'), Carayol (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Plymouth Argyle and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions
Last Game: Plymouth 2-0 Bristol Rovers
Tuesday, April 25 at 7.45pm in League One

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 Burton Albion
Tuesday, April 25 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Plymouth Argyle 1-0 Burton Albion

 With so much on the line, there may be a few nerves for Plymouth on Saturday, but they have kept their cool during recent games, and we expect them to seal promotion. Burton will make things difficult for the Pilgrims, but they have lost two of their last three League One away matches, and they are unlikely to be able to get a result against the side with the best home record in the division. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 69.92%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 12.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.66%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.33%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Plymouth Argyle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Plymouth Argyle.

Result
Plymouth ArgyleDrawBurton Albion
69.92% (0.049000000000007 0.05) 17.71% (-0.022000000000002 -0.02) 12.38% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
Both teams to score 52.07% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.51% (0.048999999999999 0.05)38.49% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.22% (0.051000000000002 0.05)60.79% (-0.049000000000007 -0.05)
Plymouth Argyle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.11% (0.025999999999996 0.03)9.89% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.23% (0.058000000000007 0.06)32.77% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.79% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)42.21% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.38% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)78.62% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Plymouth Argyle 69.91%
    Burton Albion 12.38%
    Draw 17.71%
Plymouth ArgyleDrawBurton Albion
2-0 @ 11.17%
1-0 @ 9.66% (-0.011999999999999 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.64% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 8.62% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.43% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
4-0 @ 4.98% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.3% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.21% (0.0020000000000002 0)
5-0 @ 2.31% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.99% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.85% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 4.76%
Total : 69.91%
1-1 @ 8.33% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.18% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.16% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-3 @ 0.92%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 17.71%
0-1 @ 3.6% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 3.59% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.55% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 1.03% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.4%
Total : 12.38%

How you voted: Plymouth vs Burton Albion

Plymouth Argyle
85.7%
Draw
14.3%
Burton Albion
0.0%
28
Head to Head
Nov 19, 2022 3pm
gameweek 19
Burton Albion
2-2
Plymouth
Kamwa (41'), Mariappa (90+7')
Oshilaja (17')
Hardie (64' pen.), Mumba (73')
Apr 9, 2022 3pm
gameweek 42
Burton Albion
0-0
Plymouth

Powell (84'), Maddox (88')

Houghton (82')
Oct 9, 2021 3pm
gameweek 12
Plymouth
2-1
Burton Albion
Grant (15'), Broom (43')
Scarr (60')
Akins (59')
Apr 17, 2021 12.30pm
gameweek 42
Burton Albion
1-1
Plymouth
Broom (90+3')
Clare (19')
Hardie (69')
Watts (28'), Mayor (56'), Opoku (74')
Oct 10, 2020 3pm
gameweek 5
Plymouth
2-0
Burton Albion
Jephcott (25'), Moore (47')
Watts (63'), Canavan (72')

Hemmings (58'), Daniel (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham20153237162148
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe21145246222447
3Wrexham22136333151845
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield21133535181742
5Stockport CountyStockport22106634231136
6Reading2110473431334
7Barnsley229673131033
8Mansfield TownMansfield209472622431
9Lincoln CityLincoln228772826231
10Bolton WanderersBolton209472931-231
11Charlton AthleticCharlton218672520530
12Exeter CityExeter219392223-130
13Leyton Orient218492620628
14Wigan AthleticWigan217682018227
15Blackpool217683033-327
16Stevenage207581520-526
17Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2173113840-224
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham206591922-323
19Bristol Rovers2164111932-1322
20Northampton TownNorthampton2256112238-1621
21Crawley TownCrawley2154122036-1619
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2145122137-1617
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2143142241-1915
24Burton Albion2126131734-1712
> League One Full Table


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