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Championship header 2

League One
Plymouth Argyle
League One | Gameweek 45
Apr 29, 2023 at 3pm UK
Home Park
Burton Albion

Plymouth
1 - 0
Burton Albion

Ennis (45')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ashworth (66'), Powell (89'), Carayol (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Plymouth Argyle and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions
Last Game: Plymouth 2-0 Bristol Rovers
Tuesday, April 25 at 7.45pm in League One

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 Burton Albion
Tuesday, April 25 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Plymouth Argyle 1-0 Burton Albion

 With so much on the line, there may be a few nerves for Plymouth on Saturday, but they have kept their cool during recent games, and we expect them to seal promotion. Burton will make things difficult for the Pilgrims, but they have lost two of their last three League One away matches, and they are unlikely to be able to get a result against the side with the best home record in the division. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 69.92%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 12.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.66%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.33%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Plymouth Argyle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Plymouth Argyle.

Result
Plymouth ArgyleDrawBurton Albion
69.92% (0.049000000000007 0.05) 17.71% (-0.022000000000002 -0.02) 12.38% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
Both teams to score 52.07% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.51% (0.048999999999999 0.05)38.49% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.22% (0.051000000000002 0.05)60.79% (-0.049000000000007 -0.05)
Plymouth Argyle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.11% (0.025999999999996 0.03)9.89% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.23% (0.058000000000007 0.06)32.77% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.79% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)42.21% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.38% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)78.62% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Plymouth Argyle 69.91%
    Burton Albion 12.38%
    Draw 17.71%
Plymouth ArgyleDrawBurton Albion
2-0 @ 11.17%
1-0 @ 9.66% (-0.011999999999999 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.64% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 8.62% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.43% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
4-0 @ 4.98% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.3% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.21% (0.0020000000000002 0)
5-0 @ 2.31% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.99% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.85% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 4.76%
Total : 69.91%
1-1 @ 8.33% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.18% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.16% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-3 @ 0.92%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 17.71%
0-1 @ 3.6% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 3.59% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.55% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 1.03% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.4%
Total : 12.38%

How you voted: Plymouth vs Burton Albion

Plymouth Argyle
85.7%
Draw
14.3%
Burton Albion
0.0%
28
Head to Head
Nov 19, 2022 3pm
gameweek 19
Burton Albion
2-2
Plymouth
Kamwa (41'), Mariappa (90+7')
Oshilaja (17')
Hardie (64' pen.), Mumba (73')
Apr 9, 2022 3pm
gameweek 42
Burton Albion
0-0
Plymouth

Powell (84'), Maddox (88')

Houghton (82')
Oct 9, 2021 3pm
gameweek 12
Plymouth
2-1
Burton Albion
Grant (15'), Broom (43')
Scarr (60')
Akins (59')
Apr 17, 2021 12.30pm
gameweek 42
Burton Albion
1-1
Plymouth
Broom (90+3')
Clare (19')
Hardie (69')
Watts (28'), Mayor (56'), Opoku (74')
Oct 10, 2020 3pm
gameweek 5
Plymouth
2-0
Burton Albion
Jephcott (25'), Moore (47')
Watts (63'), Canavan (72')

Hemmings (58'), Daniel (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham26186244182660
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe28177454292558
3Wrexham28157641241752
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield27146739231648
5Stockport CountyStockport28138743281547
6Leyton Orient27135940241644
7Bolton WanderersBolton28135104342144
8Charlton AthleticCharlton2712783426843
9Barnsley28126104139242
10Reading27125104241141
11Lincoln CityLincoln28108103433138
12Mansfield TownMansfield26114113432237
13Blackpool2791083938137
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham27107103231137
15Stevenage2610792324-137
16Wigan AthleticWigan2796122627-133
17Exeter CityExeter2895143242-1032
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
20Northampton TownNorthampton2869132543-1827
21Burton Albion2859143044-1424
22Crawley TownCrawley2666142646-2024
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2756162849-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2755172647-2120
> League One Full Table


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