After a come-from-behind victory to kick off the month of July, Cuiaba return home to Arena Pantanal on Sunday, where they will host Botafogo for the first time in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.
Dourado are a point below the relegation zone following a 2-1 win at Avai last weekend, while Fogo sit three points back of a spot in the 2023 Copa Libertadores qualifiers after blanking Bragantino 1-0.
Match preview
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A change in management has put the club based in Mato Grosso back within reach of staying in the Brazilian top-flight beyond this campaign, with four points in their previous three Serie A fixtures under Antonio Oliveira.
Their opening road encounter of July was an encouraging sign, as they ended a five-match losing run away from home, scoring multiple goals as the visitors for the first time all season.
Like in their inaugural campaign in Serie A a year ago, this club have resorted to hanging back, focusing on defence first while rarely taking too many chances.
That approach served them well to a point last season, but they are still struggling to find enough quality in the attacking third, scoring the fewest goals in league play so far this year (11).
From an organisational standpoint, this group are compact, hard-nosed and do not allow you a lot of time on the ball, particularly at Arena Pantanal, where they have conceded a goal or fewer in every one of their domestic affairs in 2022.
While their passive tactics have worked in terms of keeping their games within reach, sustaining so much pressure for such a long period of time appears to take a toll on them in the latter stages of a match.
They have conceded nearly half of their goals in the league with fewer than 15 minutes remaining (eight of 17), something Cuiaba will want to fix in order to secure a third successive season in the top-flight.
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Another strong performance away from home on Monday has enabled Botafogo to put a little distance between themselves and relegation, now five points above that line.
When American businessman John Textor signed a binding offer to purchase 90% ownership in the club, it came with a long-term goal that within three to five years, there is a Botafogo way.
Right now that way is anybody's guess, but when it comes to their play on the field at the moment, it appears as though this is a side that like to defend deep and restrict the space for opposing players to exploit.
If you look at their statistics in recent outings under manager Luis Castro, it would seem to contradict the brand of football that Textor prefers, with the American publicly praising clubs who like to dominate their opponents with possession and pace.
Maintaining possession has not been much of a staple for them lately, with fewer than 40% in each of their previous five fixtures in all competitions, but winning on three occasions nonetheless.
They have shown plenty of poise and commitment to preserving a lead, failing to concede in five of their last six outings in all competitions when opening the scoring.
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Team News
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Second-half tallies from Valdivia and Joaquim Henrique helped Cuiaba win their first encounter of July last Sunday, with Valdivia now tied with Andre for the most goals on the team.
Creativity and a solid playmaker have been in short supply for Dourado in this campaign as Marquinhos, Uendel and Felipe Marques are the only players to notch an assist for them domestically this season, with one a piece.
Andre remains on the sidelines because of an issue in his thigh, which is likely to keep him out until late July, while Pepe is still a few weeks away from being fully fit after sustaining a head injury.
Vinicius Lopes had the only goal for Fogo in their victory over Braga, as Gatito Fernandez has won his last two starts away from home, making six saves to collect a clean sheet on Monday.
Erison has been sidelined with a back injury but is still tied for third when it comes to goals in the Brasileiro Serie A, alongside Marcos Leonardo and Gustavo Gomez, while Daniel Borges leads Fogo in assists this season with two.
Unfortunately for Castro, Erison is not the only injury concern at the moment, as Lucas Piazon (shoulder), Rafael (Achilles tendon), Gustavo Sauer (ankle) and Victor Sa (physical discomfort) are all expected to miss this match on Sunday, although Diego Goncalves could be ready to return from his thigh injury.
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Uendel, Henrique, Marllon, Lucas; Camilo; Valdivia, Marcao, Gava, Alesson; Elton
Botafogo possible starting lineup:
Fernandez; Cuesta, Sampaio, Kanu; Hugo, Del Piage, De Paula, Saravia; Fernandes; Cruz, Lopes
We say: Cuiaba 0-1 Botafogo
Cuiaba have done well to compete and stay in the majority of their encounters, but they consistently struggle to maintain quality and discipline, which we believe will tip the scales in favour of the visitors.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
